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вторник, 2 февраля 2016 г.

The Bank of Japan supported the Japanese economy, and someone - the Bank of Russia?

The Central Bank of Japan sharply eased monetary policyRustem Falyakhov 01.30.2016,
The Bank of Japan will introduce negative interest rates - minus 0.1%, which is intended to mitigate the monetary policy and strengthen economic growth. For global investors, this will be an incentive for investments in emerging markets and purchases of risk assets, including Russian. However, in the medium term, the excessive weakening of the yen may contribute to the beginning of a new round of currency wars, in particular with Russia.The Central Bank of Japan decided to further monetary policy easing. The regulator announced its intention to introduce in February the negative interest rate - minus 0.1%, and at the same time warned that the rate cut to negative values ​​may continue, if necessary. In addition, the central bank said it would continue to buy government bonds in order to increase the amount of money in the economy. The regulator will buy government securities at a rate that will increase the amount of money in circulation annually by 80 trillion yen ($ 654 billion). The volume of corporate bonds in circulation will be maintained at the level of 2.2-3.2 trillion yen.


Both solutions are aimed at easing monetary policy, the ultimate goal is to stimulate economic growth.Central Bank upheld its assessment of the state of Japan's economy, noting that it continues to "moderate recovery".This year, the Japanese government predicts record growth in GDP. In nominal terms, GDP will grow by 3.1% to reach 518.8 trillion yen ($ 4.3 trillion). This is a record level in the past 19 years. In 1997, GDP amounted to 521 trillion yen.This decision of the Central Bank explained the need to overcome to achieve lasting more than 15 years of deflation in the Japanese economy, which leads to a reduction of production, reduce investment and living standards.The inflation target - 2%. Term of achievement of this landmark knob pushed for 2017.Similar actions to mitigate its monetary policy of the Central Bank has made in December last year due to slowing economic growth amid the global crisis and falling oil prices. On the news of the decision of the Central Bank of the Japanese yen fell against the dollar to the level of 121 yen to the dollar against the yen 118,9-118,9 at the opening of trading.The index Nikkei, reflecting the fluctuations in stock prices 225 leading companies in the country, has added nearly 600 points, to 17,615.83 points (up by 3.37%). Pending the decision of the Central Bank of the index was in negative territory.For the introduction of negative rates voted five members of the board of the Central Bank, four were against, Japanese media reported. This suggests that the decision does not seem clear to even the most effective regulator. Some of the members of the Board of Directors decided that this measure will help to overcome deflation.Deflation is a negative impact on Japan's national debt. Public debt grew by almost 4-fold in 25 years.Since 1993, the regular budget had a deficit due to the increase in social spending, which forced the government to increase debt. About a quarter of Japan's budget goes to debt service.High sotsraskhody in turn are a consequence of the demographic crisis. According to the IMF, in 2030 the ratio of pensioners to the working population will increase to 57%. According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, the average life expectancy of Japanese men - 80.5 years, women - 86.8. More than 26% of the population over 65 years.OECD experts have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of such measures, such as pumping money into the economy by the Central Bank. This is only a partial help Japan deal with low inflation, hindering the economy to grow, experts say. First, the program to mitigate yield results in early 2014, inflation reached 1.5%, but by early 2015 close to zero due to the tax increase.On the eve of the decision of the Central Bank, the Government published the statistical data showing that consumer prices in December 2015 rose by only 0.1% over the same period last year. That is, inflation in the country barely growing, the money supply is stagnant, businesses do not have enough working capital, it does not develop, and against this background the unemployment rate in Japan is quite high - 3.3%.Reduced rate to a negative value of the earlier Central Bank of Switzerland. In January 2015, it lowered the discount rate from -0.25 to -0.75% and declined from the minimum rate of the national currency against the euro. However, for the year the franc still rose against the euro. The strengthening franc exacerbated the deflationary risks. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, consumer prices in the country in 2015 fell by 1.1%. Peak values ​​were in the summer and autumn of 2014, when deflation in Switzerland has been fixed at 1.4%.In 2016 deflation in Switzerland will remain at 0.5%. Exit inflation in Switzerland will be able to, according to the forecasts, only in 2017.The Bank of Japan has long pursued expansionary policy, and as long as it only helps to stop openly negative trends, such as the unwinding of deflation, but run growth decline in deposit rates below zero is unlikely to succeed, economic agents need more serious drivers, said Natalia Shilov, deputy director of the Center for Macroeconomic Forecasting BIN and investment strategy."Japan's economy will not be able to resist for too long the entire complex quite aggressive stimuli applied by the monetary authorities of the country", - Timur Turlov objection, the general director of "Freedom Finance." He believes that the problem of acceleration of inflation is realizable, incentives will be felt on the horizon next year.For all emerging market currencies, including the ruble, such decisions global monetary authorities, including the decision by the Bank of Japan is certainly positive, as they smooth out investors' concerns about slowing global growth and stimulate buying riskier assets in emerging markets, according to Shilov. In her view, the Bank of Russia for the cessation of sales in global stock markets and commodities is very timely and will give a chance to return to lower rates if the situation is really stabilized, and investors will be convinced to support the market by the regulators of the world.In addition, such synchronized actions warmed expectations that the Fed will not be too "oppress" a sharp increase in market rates, and will return to it only after the stabilization of the situation.However, not all experts are less optimistic. The course of the weakening of currencies in recent years taken several states, including Russia. Pressure on the yen may significantly increase, and we run the risk to see another round of "currency wars" (actions of countries to achieve the low exchange rate for its currency in order to increase their own exports. - "Gazeta. Ru»), warns Turlov.
The Bank of Russia kept the rate at 11%
 
01/29/2016


The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on January 29 at the first meeting in 2016 decided to leave the key rate unchanged at 11.00% per annum, as in the previous three meetings, on 11 December on 30 October and 11 September 2015 the Central Bank points out the risk of rising inflation above the previously announced target of 4% in 2017 and recognizes that the baseline scenario DCT differs from reality.
Before September 11, the Bank of Russia five times to cut rates.
In the preceding 11 st September meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on July 31 decided to reduce the key rate from 11.5% to 11%.
The Bank of Russia raised the rate sharply December 16, 2014 c 10,50% to 17,00% per annum due to the continuing threat of uncontrolled devaluation and inflation.
On January 30, 2015 began its decline from 17.00% to 15.00%, on March 13 - with 15.00% and 14.00%, 30 April - a 14.00% to 12.5% ​​per annum, 15 June - from 12.5% ​​to 11.5%.
Statement by the Central Bank on the amount bet.The Board of Directors of Bank of Russia January 29, 2016 decided to keep the key rate at 11.00% per annum. Amid a new wave of decline in oil prices monthly consumer price growth has stabilized at a high level. It increases the risk of accelerating inflation. The deterioration of the situation on world commodity markets will require further adaptation of the Russian economy.
In view of the decision the Bank of Russia predicts decline in the annual inflation rate to less than 7% in January 2017 and up to the target level of 4% by the end of 2017 in the case of increasing inflation risks, the Bank of Russia does not rule out tightening of monetary policy.
During the time elapsed since the December meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia increased the risks to price stability. The continuing oversupply in the oil market, slowdown in the Chinese economy, as well as raising the interest rate the Fed led to a further drop in oil prices. In turn, this led to the weakening of national currencies and a decrease in prices of financial assets of emerging markets, including Russia. Due to the increased volatility in oil prices has increased the amplitude of fluctuations in the prices of financial assets and the Russian ruble.
What happened under the influence of falling oil prices, the weakening of the ruble has proinflyatsionnoe pressure and promotes the growth of inflationary expectations, despite a slowdown in the annual inflation rate. According to Bank of Russia estimates, the annual growth rate of consumer prices fell from 12.9% in December 2015 to about 10% by the end of January 2016 Such a slowdown in the annual inflation rate in line with earlier forecasts made.
The Bank of Russia expects that in the I quarter of 2016, consumer prices will increase by 8-9% of the corresponding period of the previous year. There are risks that in the II quarter of 2016, annual inflation accelerated, including due to the low base effect. In the future, the annual rate of decline in consumer price growth resumes. This should also contribute to lower inflation expectations and monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the decision taken inflation to fall to less than 7% in January 2017 and up to the target level of 4% at the end of 2017
However, the risks of deviations of inflation from the target at the end of 2017 increased. When deciding on the key rate was taken into account the situation in the economy, where increased risks of continuing economic decline due to lower oil prices. Also take into account the factors of high debt burden of Russian companies and interest rate risks accounted for the banks and their borrowers.
Oil prices in 2016-2017 gg. Are likely to be lower than previously estimated in the baseline scenario. Floating rate will partially offset the negative impact on the economies of low energy prices. However, the need to further adaptation of the balance of payments and the economy to lower the level of world prices for Russia's main exports.
As a result, in 2016 GDP decline will be more significant than previously forecast in the baseline scenario. Additional adaptation period may take several quarters. The growth rate of GDP will be released in positive territory in 2017, but will be low.
However, if oil prices remain at low levels for a long time, it will lead to a further increase in inflation risks and risks to financial stability, as well as to the need for more extensive adaptation of the economy to new conditions. Letting the slower growth in consumer prices may also be long-term preservation of high inflation expectations. To reduce the risks need to be balanced fiscal policy over the medium term.
In the case of increasing inflation risks the Bank of Russia does not rule out tightening of monetary policy.
The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, which will consider the question of the level of the key rate, scheduled for March 18, 2016 Time of publication of the press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia - 13:30 Moscow time.
Presidential adviser: speculators earned on the manipulation of the rate of $ 50 billion02.02.2016 |Over the past year and a half speculators earned on the manipulation of the national currency exchange rate $ 50 billion, told "Gazeta.ru" presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev.He said that these savings can not long lie down, they should be invested. For this reason, large speculators have agreed to return to the previously adopted program of privatization of state assets. But while some of them say that the privatization should not hurry.
"Speculators say that you first need to reorganize inefficient companies and banks with the help of the budget, remove losses on government assistance, or who buy government stakes with such holes, and then you can take part in the privatization," - said Glazyev.In this regard, Russian President Vladimir Putin among the basic principles of the new wave of privatization called publicity, with the exception of state credits and offshore. Glazyev noted that such principles when compared to the 1990s, privatization in Russia have not yet been evaluated."I remember that privatization was based on the investment competitions, but who then checked, whether the commitments made? No one has reported, but in most cases, investment plans have not been implemented. This property of the new owners no one wins. This should not happen again, "- he said.If privatization does get a hold on these principles the president, it can be effective, and the experience of other countries, particularly the UK, it proves adviser to the president stressed.Earlier it was reported that Vladimir Putin outlined the key conditions for the privatization of state companies.

Russian banks have earned in 2015 265 billion rubles10/12/2015, 11:40For 11 months, Russian banks have 265 billion rubles. arrived. This was announced by Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Vasily Pozdyshev. According to him, the positive financial result from January to November showed more than 500 credit institutions were at a loss 210. The fact that the banking sector was able to get out of the profit can be considered an achievement. However, to predict what will be the financial performance of the industry in the next year, now it is difficult. So says the deputy chairman of the "Lanta-Bank" Irina Lynx."Having arrived - this is certainly a positive result. Here the question of how positive the size of the profit. Of course, this depends on the specific state of the economy: we see how it changes as compared to the previous year. And today, we understand that the economy is indeed in a state in which the banks can not earn as much as they earn. It is difficult to say what we can expect in the next year. If the Central Bank will provide some relief in terms of provisioning, we can say that, probably, banks will be able to more accurately develop its activities and get better financial results ", - said Lynx.Because of the current economic situation, banks are going through hard times, their overall financial result is not so bad. However, the figures show some credit institutions may diverge from reality. This opinion is shared by the president of the investment group "Moscow partners" Eugene Kogan."I have to be honest, is very cautious about the figures show that the banks, I think, the fact that the profits among banks show just part because they have nowhere to go. To them did not eat the Central Bank, it is necessary to at least some profit to show. Today the bank is very difficult to survive, but the overall picture is not fatal "- sure Kogan.The real income of the banks in two and a half times less than that which appears in these statements, management believes the chief of analytical BKF Bank Maxim Osadchiy."We have now the statistics for the first nine months of the size of the gifts received by banks from owners of the shareholders, for example. We can expect that for 11 months have received gifts somewhere 150 billion rubles. We see that most of the profits obtained in the form of a gift - this or any securities or real estate, and the assessment of their market value, if available, is very, very doubtful, "- said" Kommersant FM »Osadchiy.At the end of 2014 profit of Russian banks amounted to 589 billion rubles.Andrei Zagorski

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