Everything points to the "New Planet" has not reached the journalists "Izvestia" and they have not read our articles on economics, which were reviewed in detail the issues of inflation and development, as they are in each number are continuing to publish articles which, with incredible tenacity, continue to assert that inflation - is the foundation of our economic growth, strengthening of the ruble that reduces the competitiveness of our economy. And again in the Izvestia »№ 96, dated 8 June, and published an article alleging that the central bank is willing to sacrifice for the sake of the economy to combat rising prices, done as much with three journalists. But, as I proceed from the assumption that these citizens are simply wrong, and not consciously interpreted the wrong idea, I think it necessary to repeat his arguments to do away with this false premise, even though that would have to say in the political economy of banal truths .
Let's think: as whether inflation is a necessary condition for the development of our economy, and strengthening of the ruble makes our economy less competitive, as claimed by Mr. Kudrin. What we have already mentioned in the article "Kudrin Stabilization Fund. He was echoed by deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Ulyukayev, stating that the Central Bank is willing to take more than anticipated strengthening of the ruble, although this would reduce the competitiveness of Russian producers in comparison with overseas. Are these selfless actions to strengthen the Central Bank Ruble adversely affect the economy. But budim believe their word, and analyze, and whether it really is.
Inflationary processes developed under the pressure of two factors - it is not related, reaching a non-productive sphere, cash infusions, part of the state, and higher prices for goods so-called natural monopolies. And in both cases involved official. In the first case, the government, workers and the Ministry of Finance Central Bank, while the second, officials of various levels of government participating in the Tariff Commission and takes the decision to raise those or other tariffs. From this it follows that the development of inflation benefits the state and owners of the monopolies. After all, who is spurring these processes, that they benefit.
Monopolies, due to its monopoly or dominant position in its quest for profit-seeking it is not by reducing production costs and productivity growth, which is very expensive and troublesome, and by increasing the prices of their goods and, to date, it has successfully performed, finding a common language with the authorities.
This phenomenon can not be counted among the actions that increase the competitiveness of our economy, because all producers grow up production costs, and the lion's share of the profit goes into the pockets of monopolists. On this occasion should not even be extended.
Now to the state and see what the state receives from the depreciation of the ruble? First, we must not forget that the state is involved in the existing monopolies and therefore the officials involved in sharing the profits of the monopolies. Secondly, due to the devaluation of the ruble from the state formed the so-called boost inflation, which officials can order at their discretion, including spend it to consolidate its power. The budget surplus is presented to them as an achievement, as a result of effective economic activity, without understanding, and due to which there is currently a surplus of money. Due to the development of production, due to growth of labor productivity, or due to bleeding of our economy. Inflation boost due to the fact that budgetary payments are approved article by article, in the form of lump sum and taxes are collected as a percentage of profit and turnover, and because of the time gap between the time of stuffing money and until the equalization of prices.
Consider a simple example. Suppose that all the budget money is paid out 10 doctors, (This does not matter the number of recipients of budget money, their 10 or 100000, the result is the same), the total annual salary which is 240 000 rubles, at a monthly salary of a doctor in 2000, and the entire budget is 240 000 rubles. For simplicity, assume the condition that the revenue coming from entrepreneurs, who pay 50% of the profits. After stuffing the money supply or raising of prices by monopolies, there is an increase in money supply and therefore payments to the budget, in monetary terms. If inflation is 10%, while prices of goods and services will grow by 10%, while employers get the same arrived, say, 20%, but those twenty percent of the profits will be expressed is not 100 rubles and 110 rubles, and they paid to the budget not 50 rubles, as before, and 55 rubles, although it will be, as before 50% of the profits. That is the state budget will no longer 240 000 thousand rubles, and 264 000 rubles, although they will express the same amount of value as before the depreciation of the ruble. But the state obligations to the doctors for this year, only 240 000 rubles, and so these inflationary 24 000 rubles government officials, with a clear conscience, spend their discretion, declaring that the funds are an expression of their good work.
If we look at it on a physical product, the people, as a result of reduced purchasing power of pensions, allowances, stipends, salaries will be able to buy only part of the goods that it consumes up to this, the other part became the property of the state, and it can spend its as desired.
In our example, the losers are the doctors, whose standard of living dropped by 10%. The following year, a State may establish a budget increase of wages of doctors by 10%, and set the spending level of 264 000 rubles, but inflation next year, even 10% would make them even poorer, because 10% of 264 000 would be 26 now 400 rubles. It is the desire of officials to obtain the additional funds from inflation and that explains why so far no effect of inflation rate, which allows to recalculate monthly budget payments, as well as their aspirations and move beyond the annual budget approval for the triennial.
So far we have considered the benefits of the state of inflation on budgetary payments, and now look at how inflation is reflected in the agents involved in the manufacturing sector.
In addition to the official, in the field of economic relations, we have representatives of big business, which specializes in trading of raw materials on international markets or products of primary processing, business-oriented to the domestic market, medium and small businesses, and hired workers. Of all these we have the agents of production, the benefits of inflation are the state and big business that sells on world markets. Raw monopoly to benefit from the depreciation of the ruble, as well as receive for the same amount of output sold on the world market, more rubles, which they pay, within the country, with equipment suppliers and workers at the old prices. Primary benefit of these companies comes from the constant backlog of wages from rising inflation. And the state will receive additional revenue by cutting off part of the excess profits of commodity tycoons. That's all, who benefits from inflation.
So, where is the economy arising from inflation, about which so much writing. How can there be development, when officials are known to burst out the profits in U.S. securities. Well, to some degree, beneficial to the American economy, and therefore in the past year it grew by 4,5%, reduced unemployment, increased exports. It turns out that our economy has become a donor to a dying American. That's what about the use of accumulated resources in the country said State Duma deputy, deputy of the Committee on Economic Policy of the State Duma Yelena Panina in Argumenty and facts. "Stabilization Fund and the Central Bank reserves are invested in low liquidity securities of foreign states. In other words, our "oil money" do not work on the domestic economy. "
Not the best way, at least, for society, is disposed of excess profits and our oligarchs. Only during the first quarter of 2005 the country exported $ 19 billion of capital. Remember the notorious Roma Abramovich with his club Chelsea, with its billion-dollar yachts. In the Czech Republic was no more castles, not bought Russian nouveaux riches, as in London and its suburbs, as reported by Alexander Nekrasov, in Novaya Gazeta, is home to five multi-millionaires and even two hundred Russians with a fortune of tens of millions of dollars. But even this is not important, as our oligarchs spend the money, and that even if they wanted to put them into production, the country's development, the existing organic composition of capital, ie the ratio of means of production and workforce, ensuring receipt of certain rules profit, supported by the state, would not allow them to invest in the necessary and the estimated profit. This allows you to remove the organic structure of significant funds from the economy, but does not allow them to effectively put back. The economy would simply be bogged down by excessive capital inflows. Moreover, the domestic market is limited, the international market also can not consume excessive quantities of raw materials. So inflation, which would produce the oligarchs and bureaucrats excessive profits, does not contribute to the economy of our country, as is "baked" Kudrin, Illarionov, Gref, and others of that ilk.
Now dwell on how inflation affects on those who are not involved in power, to the higher bureaucracy and the trade in raw materials, the workers and entrepreneurs. Is inflation to develop the economy in this part?
Not to mention the fact that inflation reduces the living standards of the majority of the population, thereby reducing life expectancy, it is also detrimental impact on the economy as a whole. As a result of the fall in real purchasing power of the population is shrinking market for goods of mass demand, the illusion of over-production of goods and services, forcing manufacturers to turn off or suspend production. And although the cost of hired labor and decreases the entrepreneur loses much more than wins, because it is important not only the rate of profit, but also mass. He was fun to have 5% from 1000, than 10% of a hundred, for 50 rubles more than 10. Second, no less disastrous consequences of inflation - a rise in the cost of money loans, which naturally hinders the possibility of developing small and medium-sized businesses because they do not in any case you can make a profit, making it possible to pay the interest and inflation. Do not develop not only business loans, but do not crediting the population, mortgage, because wages do not keep pace with inflation. Thirdly, in conditions of unwinding inflation entrepreneurs refuse to invest for the long payback periods, thereby hampering the development of re-production and productivity. Fourth, a steady decline in labor costs, that is, real wages in manufacturing, hampering technological development, which is the basis of competitiveness of any economy. Why the owner of the plant will implement the mechanization of production or use of industrial robots, where he can always be found on the labor market, cheap and sufficiently skilled workers?
And today we see that the government continues to act in the same vein. They continue to operate on the principle of the Mexican revolutionary general who had written about John Reed. When the General was asked whether he wants to make people rich, he replied: "Very simply. We publish lots of money and hand out to the poor. All are rich. "
Recently the Government of Russia decided to increase expenditure commitments of the federal budget in 2005 to 382, 7 billion rubles. Of these, 34.4 billion rubles earmarked, as stated by Finance Minister Kudrin, to support the regions in 2006, and the rest will be spent on social needs, increasing salaries, pensions and money allowances to the military.
Of course, it is necessary to raise and pension and benefits, and wages, but not in the form of additional issue, as does the government, but in parallel with the strengthening of the ruble. Instead of promoting commodity production, the Government continues to untwist inflation. And what kind of support regions? For whom is it intended? As for the uncertainty in the financial policy, which turns into abuse. And, most likely for someone who will do more rollback officials who will determine to whom to give, and who does not.
This policy of the government, which holds it in alliance with the oligarchs, aimed at unwinding of inflation and the increase of the oligarchs, leading the country to a standstill, to the degradation and economic backwardness. And all this will result in the fact that when joining the WTO, just come down our economy.
Only the increase in productivity through the use of new technologies and reduce production costs per unit of output, can make our economy truly competitive. But this is impossible in a developing inflation, under the domination of certain monopolies, in an uncontrolled bureaucracy, under the existing tax system to dilute one part of society and to enrich another.
Vitaly Glukhov
10.10.2005g.
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