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пятница, 29 апреля 2016 г.

Life has become better. But only on paper

  The situation with unemployment and incomes of the population is much more alarming than the government saysAlex PolubotaAccording to the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the unemployment situation in Russia as a whole is relatively quiet."Visible and some positive trends in the first place, I have in mind the low level of inflation and the decline in its year-to-year and month-to-month," - he said.The total number of unemployed in Russia in March 2016, according to Rosstat, increased compared with February by 138,000 and reached 4.5 million. People, of whom 1.1 million. Were registered on the labor markets.

Externally, these numbers do look "not scary." However, is it really the situation is as it is official statistics?- When you listen to the statements of some of our leaders, it seems that there are two Russian, - says Director of the Institute for Social Policy and socio-economic programs HSE Sergey Smirnov. - One - the official which overcome inflation, low unemployment, etc. In another, the real Russia, much more complicated... It is obvious that the state continues to solve the financial problems mainly due to the bulk of its far from the richest citizens. And it's annoying.Yes, the economy and social sphere in the country could be worse. But the most negative consequences was avoided only because the oil is not "stuck" at around $ 30 a barrel and gradually rose to forty dollars.Yet to say that the country can not improve the economic situation. After all, the main indicator of improvement of any economy - is to improve the life of us, individual citizens. However, we see that instead of falling real incomes, growing hidden unemployment, when people are sent on leave without pay or are forced to work part-time.The State Duma will ask Medvedev, the government is struggling with povertyRecently Savings Bank decided to reduce rates on deposits. Now, investing in state-owned bank, you practically do not get the profits. And when it comes to dollar deposits in nominal terms, and still lose. If following the decline in interest rates on deposits will follow and lower rates on loans, it will be a justified measure. But so far this has not happened.If you take the economy as a whole, some progress has in agriculture. The food embargo led to the fact that the production of domestic agricultural products increased by approximately 3%. Another issue that is not always high-quality products, but the good news is that there is some positive dynamics.In general we can say that there has been some stagnation of the economy. She seemed to be stopped at a certain "plateau", but what will happen to it - will fall into the abyss, or hold out and start a gradual climb, very difficult to say."SP": - What measures could be taken today, the situation began to gradually straighten out?- Given the instability in oil prices and an unstable ruble as opportunities from the state is not so much. It would be nice to start with, the state implemented a series of measures aimed at increasing citizens' trust in it. In this regard, the decision on whether to make the pension earned property of citizens can only be supported.On the other hand, we know how sometimes categorically state acts against the small business. The notorious "Night of the Long bucket" when in the capital without a court were demolished hundreds of objects belonging to small businesses - not been in vain. Now, many will think about whether to conduct their business. And it is a small business is able to help the state solve the problem of employment, combating unemployment, including hidden.- Dry statistics do show that the unemployment we have a critical situation - said the deputy head of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation, Professor Alexander Shcherbakov. - On paper, it keeps us even below that level, which was in 2008-2009, during the first wave of the crisis. Total unemployment in Russia is about five percent of the working population. At the same time labor markets put on the account even less - just over a million people. The danger is that we have a growing hidden unemployment, when people are on administrative leave, work part time, and so on.And here we can not agree with the Prime Minister that the unemployment situation is calm. It is rather disturbing, and continues to deteriorate. This hidden unemployment at any moment could turn into the open. In addition, a small percentage of registered unemployed persons, not least due to the fact that declining real wages in Russia. It is somewhat more dangerous than the unemployment rate. Since the unemployed - it's still a small percentage of the population, but the majority of revenues are reduced. While this decline in income only increased. Against this background, talking about a certain stabilization - is wrong."SP": - The government is often criticized for the fact that it is, in spite of the sanctions, despite the decline in oil prices is almost does not change the economic model of the country's development, which leads to a worsening of the crisis. Is it so?- For the second year we are trying to implement several measures to help strengthen the economy. The most important thing here - the import substitution. In my estimation, already a month or two or three positive consequences of this policy will affect. Will create new jobs, increase the volume of products produced in the country. If it starts in three months to the end of the year we will begin to really feel the negative effects of the decline in world energy prices gradually being overcome.Why is the government unable to deliver on their promises?Now a lot depends on credit policy in Russia will be to change. Since the unstable ruble severely limits the opportunities for the development of many enterprises. They simply do not have enough working capital in terms of expensive credit. This is one reason why the salary of many workers is reduced or delayed. If we manage to balance the credit policy and at the same time the ruble will not collapse, the socio-economic situation in Russia will remain within acceptable limits. Everything ultimately decides how well the government will act in the financial sector. 


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