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четверг, 21 июля 2016 г.

Putin asked Medvedev to think about the problem of "the strong ruble"

Putin asked Medvedev to think about the problem of "the strong ruble": waiting for devaluation
The expert explained why the country benefits from a weak national currency
Two days ago, at 21:31, Visits: 161644 President Vladimir Putin held a working meeting with the prime minister and Medvedev suggested the head of "think" the government what to do in connection with the strengthening of the ruble. How to understand the concise instructions GDP? This is what we have talked with an expert.

Dmitry Medvedev, in response to the Head of State said that the plan for this year laid the support of the real sector, small and medium-sized businesses and non-oil exports, and the share of revenues from it grows. The Prime Minister promised to consider "all factors" in the preparation of the budget for the three-year term. Deciphering the rest of the meeting was published on the Kremlin website was not.

For comments, we have addressed to the director of the Institute of Contemporary Economics, PhD Nikita Isaev:

- I believe that the fate of the ruble the government needed to attend to a little bit earlier. But as they say, better late than never. What's the matter? In fact, what is happening today inexplicable from a scientific point of view of the processes in the domestic economy. Oil prices are falling, and the ruble, which is strongly linked to the volatility of raw materials, on the contrary, strengthened against the dollar. This is despite the fact that "American" is strengthened in relation to all the currencies of the world: and the euro and the Japanese yen.
How can we explain the behavior of the Russian currency? Frankly, the unequivocal answer I have. But it brings a lot of problems for our economy. Foreign exchange earnings are converted into strong ruble - and the country's budget deficit appears, gaping holes. During the first half of the year across the country by 11%, we have reduced the previously planned expenditure. Leaving only social projects. But to implement them, if this trend continues and further, already have to borrow money from the Reserve Fund.
I believe that measures to weaken the ruble and discussed the president and prime minister.
- And when, in your opinion, the ruble will start to fall?
- The most appropriate time - 3-4 quarter of this year, and if specifically, after the elections to the State Duma on 18 September. The devaluation is likely to be 20-25%, that is, the dollar will be in the corridor about 80-85 rubles. Of course, to replenish the treasury in cash, but also to prevent a collapse of the national currency, it would be good to weaken the smooth start now, do not postpone the case indefinitely. However, there is a problem in the fact that Dmitry Medvedev is headed not only the government, but also the party "United Russia". And here it is necessary to sustain a certain balance. Show the voters before the election that we have in the financial field, everything is quite stable and predictable.
But all of this until a certain time. The economy can not be fooled.
topical archiveThis prevents the strong ruble?

I look through the press about the meeting with Putin and Kudrin are scratching their heads: what are they talking about? Just I can not understand anything. It seems that many journalists, describing the meeting, did not understand anything.
"Too strong ruble, according to the president, could undermine the competitiveness of the national economy", - writes the newspaper "Kommersant".
How can undermine the national economy strong ruble? A strong, I take them used the expression, can cut back the income of commodity monopolies supplying hydrocarbon feed to the world market, but it does not undermine but rather strengthen the position of producers in other industries. The Americans recently doing everything to strengthen the dollar, knowing that is the basis of stable existence of American manufacturers. And we have, it turns out, the opposite is true.
On vague statement of Putin, Kudrin still confused Bole says: "The main measures to prevent the strengthening - is responsible Alexei Kudrin - it is the government's measures, but as soon as the government increases its spending by oil and gas revenues, it threatens to further strengthening. As part of the forecast, which we are prepared, we will be able to keep strengthening "in the planned parameters.
Kudrin would stick to any one coordinate system and not to state totally conflicting statements. MPs and the people, he said that additional costs will cause inflation, and therefore they should be limited and, in this case, by increasing costs due to oil and gas revenues, according to the minister, there will be the strengthening of the ruble. How will strengthen? After all, the costs will be made in rubles, not dollars, and therefore will increase the ruble mass, with respect to goods, and the same dollar, which respectively reduce the real value of the ruble, rather than strengthen.
Journalists of "Vedomosti" Petrachkova Alexander, Alexander Becker and assessed the situation: "The strengthening of the ruble could threaten the economy, especially the real sector, says Vladimir Putin is why the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will have to fight against inflation and the strengthening of the course at the same time.".
It seems that officials of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, who had taken too eager to fight inflation, at the request of the President, came on corn commodity giants, but so painful that Vladimir Putin himself, undertook to support inflation.
"The president asked urgently to slow the pace of appreciation of the national currency", - issues a "Time of news"; "Putin instructed to slow down the ruble," - says Larisa Kaftan in "Komsomolskaya Pravda".

The fact that the strengthening of the ruble, unprofitable commodity monopolies, and the president is concerned about this, Vladimir Putin did not hide. The President said that he had met with representatives of large companies, "they still have a margin of safety", but the rapid strengthening of the ruble could create problems for them. Their products have become more expensive compared to imports and lose the global competition. As the government is going to save the situation? "
And in the area of ​​production, what goods we compete if 70% of our exports of raw materials?
"We must resist the strengthening of the ruble by all available means!" - Selflessly and gladly minister said. And he does not enjoy! After all this time, Kudrin did just that, for the sake of big monopolies, supplying the world markets of oil, gas, metals, wood, and so on. Well, now, he is also the president received support. So now the wait for a new rise in prices, as Kudrin will begin to deal with the strengthening of the ruble with renewed vigor.
There is no doubt that Putin is bent on the side of raw material monopolies. This is the only way to describe the president's statements he made during a meeting with the head of the Ministry of Finance Kudrin. Six months ago, the President set the task to strengthen the ruble, the reduction of inflation, convertibility of the ruble, and now, under the pressure of the owners of raw moguls, deploys all the policies in the opposite direction.
"As it turned out after the" business contacts ", the policy of strengthening the ruble could damage ekonomike.- Russian newspaper" Vedomosti ". - And now to the Central Bank and the government, in fact, put the triple objective: to prevent the growth of inflation, to keep the ruble and continue to increase government spending. With such input should expect an interesting political season. If you do not resign, then the serious failures are guaranteed: the task set by the president, not feasible.
The situation will remain a stalemate, if not to abandon one of the three objectives - in compliance with only two input equation can be solved. "
"To strengthen the ruble to the Russian authorities was convenient to quell inflation. But now, when the President ordered not to do so, before the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank raises extremely difficult task - and not the ruble to strengthen, and to struggle with rising prices. - Asks blankly, "Izvestia". - This means that inflation ahead. "
Under pressure from the interests of raw material monopolies caved in not only the president but also the government, which has developed a three-year plan to reduce the budget revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons. For three years the share of extraction tax (MET) and export duties in the budget revenues will be reduced from 50% to 30%. "This, according to Kudrin, and there is a way to reduce the budget dependence on oil prices. That's just the oil barons and their lobbyists the government is apparently not at all afraid of their dependence on oil revenues, and in full swing oil and thank their benefactors.
Ivan Tevrizsky

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