Ruble devaluation of preparing a newThe Ministry of Finance promised that the rise in prices will stop for a few weeks in AugustOfficials - voluntarily or involuntarily - to stimulate citizens' distrust in the national currency. First, the Kremlin started talking about the excessive strengthening of the ruble, which threatens to replenish the budget. Then the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank started to convince people that a new devaluation of the wait should not be. Meanwhile, independent economists predict the fall of the ruble by the end of the year by 15%."The ruble is fairly valued in accordance with the balance of payments and the current price of oil. When we talk about a new fiscal rule, we most care about reducing the
dependence of the entire domestic economy from fluctuations in oil
prices, "- said yesterday the deputy head of the Ministry of Finance
Maxim Oreshkin, who was quoted by Tass.
But in the Kremlin today's exchange rate is not considered comfortable. "The ruble has strengthened, despite a certain price volatility in commodity markets. We need to think about how and what we will do in the near future in this regard ", - advised on Tuesday Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, President Vladimir Putin. Then the officials and bankers have decided to prepare the population to the idea that the country needs a new - recreation - the weakening of the ruble.Thus, presidential aide Andrei Belousov called "pereukreplenie" ruble issue: "It works in the negative, reduces revenues and increases the budget problems. This reduces the competitiveness of the Russian industry and agriculture, devaluing the task of import substitution. And we really are seeing a trend of slowing down export growth. " A former deputy head of the Ministry of Economic Development, is now deputy chairman of Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach said that the weakening of the dollar at 1 rub. It leads to losses of the Russian budget to 150-160 billion rubles. in year.Late last week, the press service of the regulator stated that "the central bank has no plans to abandon the floating exchange rate and does not intend to influence the level of the course." It can be understood in two ways: either the Central Bank will not specifically pereukrepivshiysya weaken the ruble, or it will not prevent the fall of the ruble, if it starts. Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev has supported the Central Bank yesterday. "Strengthening of the ruble as its weakening, gives one win, another loss ... I'm in this situation agree with the logic of the Bank of Russia, which says that the market will determine", - Interfax quotes the Minister.Oreshkin, however, argue with colleagues. As the posts of news, he did not agree with the calculations Klepach: "Even a direct impact on oil at current prices two times lower than the level called. You have to understand that from the weakening of the ruble market economy becomes negative. "Some economists have no doubt: a new devaluation be. According to Citigroup analysts, the ruble is now overvalued relative to the dollar by 11%. A former deputy chairman of the Central Bank, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Sergei Aleksashenko in its analytical review Nota Bene warns about the imminent devaluation of the ruble by 10-15%, reports slon.ru. Aleksashenko thus refers both to the seasonal factor, and the verbal "campaign" in favor of the weakening of the ruble.By the way, Putin and Medvedev talked about the prospects of the ruble when the dollar was worth about 63 rubles. On July 26 the Central Bank has set the course for almost 65 rubles. per dollar, ie the week the ruble has weakened by 3%. If Aleksashenko forecast comes true, then very soon we are waiting for the dollar to rise in price of 70 rubles. and higher.Based on its assessment of the exchange rate, Oreshkin yesterday also admitted that in August, not excluded small - weekly or even monthly - deflation. The fall, or at least a slowdown of price increases - is quite usual for August, seasonal phenomenon. At least, as indicated by the official statistics for the last eight years, in August compared to July price growth slowed down significantly, and in the weekly section sometimes really deflation.Interviewees "NG" experts, however, warn that deflation forecast can not be justified - in the event that the ruble will weaken. "In this year of deflation can not be with a fairly high degree of probability. Against the backdrop of falling oil prices and declining demand for ruble liquidity on the part of companies exporting the ruble may sag quite significantly in August and September, that will provoke inflation expectations, "- he said the first vice-president" supports Russia "Paul Segal. In his view, given the current price of a barrel of Urals oil ruble should prosest to 68-69 rubles. per dollar."Now we add up all the circumstances to further reduce the price of oil, which can go below $ 40 mark. Per barrel, which will lead to a weakening of the ruble. This, in turn, affect the cost of imported goods and hence inflation. However, it is difficult to say how significant will be the impact of this factor, "- says the analyst group of companies" Finam "Bogdan Zvarich. The expert admits that the ruble will soon not only be weakened and fall ahead of the negative dynamics of oil prices.However, some experts believe that on the eve of elections, the collapse of the ruble may not happen. "Now the ruble - it is primarily the stabilization of household incomes and reducing the rate of inflation, - explains the analyst of company" Alor Broker "Alexei Antonov. - Thus, we can say that at least until September expensive ruble would be beneficial to all. "Source: www.ng.ru
But in the Kremlin today's exchange rate is not considered comfortable. "The ruble has strengthened, despite a certain price volatility in commodity markets. We need to think about how and what we will do in the near future in this regard ", - advised on Tuesday Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, President Vladimir Putin. Then the officials and bankers have decided to prepare the population to the idea that the country needs a new - recreation - the weakening of the ruble.Thus, presidential aide Andrei Belousov called "pereukreplenie" ruble issue: "It works in the negative, reduces revenues and increases the budget problems. This reduces the competitiveness of the Russian industry and agriculture, devaluing the task of import substitution. And we really are seeing a trend of slowing down export growth. " A former deputy head of the Ministry of Economic Development, is now deputy chairman of Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach said that the weakening of the dollar at 1 rub. It leads to losses of the Russian budget to 150-160 billion rubles. in year.Late last week, the press service of the regulator stated that "the central bank has no plans to abandon the floating exchange rate and does not intend to influence the level of the course." It can be understood in two ways: either the Central Bank will not specifically pereukrepivshiysya weaken the ruble, or it will not prevent the fall of the ruble, if it starts. Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev has supported the Central Bank yesterday. "Strengthening of the ruble as its weakening, gives one win, another loss ... I'm in this situation agree with the logic of the Bank of Russia, which says that the market will determine", - Interfax quotes the Minister.Oreshkin, however, argue with colleagues. As the posts of news, he did not agree with the calculations Klepach: "Even a direct impact on oil at current prices two times lower than the level called. You have to understand that from the weakening of the ruble market economy becomes negative. "Some economists have no doubt: a new devaluation be. According to Citigroup analysts, the ruble is now overvalued relative to the dollar by 11%. A former deputy chairman of the Central Bank, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Sergei Aleksashenko in its analytical review Nota Bene warns about the imminent devaluation of the ruble by 10-15%, reports slon.ru. Aleksashenko thus refers both to the seasonal factor, and the verbal "campaign" in favor of the weakening of the ruble.By the way, Putin and Medvedev talked about the prospects of the ruble when the dollar was worth about 63 rubles. On July 26 the Central Bank has set the course for almost 65 rubles. per dollar, ie the week the ruble has weakened by 3%. If Aleksashenko forecast comes true, then very soon we are waiting for the dollar to rise in price of 70 rubles. and higher.Based on its assessment of the exchange rate, Oreshkin yesterday also admitted that in August, not excluded small - weekly or even monthly - deflation. The fall, or at least a slowdown of price increases - is quite usual for August, seasonal phenomenon. At least, as indicated by the official statistics for the last eight years, in August compared to July price growth slowed down significantly, and in the weekly section sometimes really deflation.Interviewees "NG" experts, however, warn that deflation forecast can not be justified - in the event that the ruble will weaken. "In this year of deflation can not be with a fairly high degree of probability. Against the backdrop of falling oil prices and declining demand for ruble liquidity on the part of companies exporting the ruble may sag quite significantly in August and September, that will provoke inflation expectations, "- he said the first vice-president" supports Russia "Paul Segal. In his view, given the current price of a barrel of Urals oil ruble should prosest to 68-69 rubles. per dollar."Now we add up all the circumstances to further reduce the price of oil, which can go below $ 40 mark. Per barrel, which will lead to a weakening of the ruble. This, in turn, affect the cost of imported goods and hence inflation. However, it is difficult to say how significant will be the impact of this factor, "- says the analyst group of companies" Finam "Bogdan Zvarich. The expert admits that the ruble will soon not only be weakened and fall ahead of the negative dynamics of oil prices.However, some experts believe that on the eve of elections, the collapse of the ruble may not happen. "Now the ruble - it is primarily the stabilization of household incomes and reducing the rate of inflation, - explains the analyst of company" Alor Broker "Alexei Antonov. - Thus, we can say that at least until September expensive ruble would be beneficial to all. "Source: www.ng.ru
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