The government does not agree with the fall of Russia's GDP, given the World Bank
31.03.2009, Sight
Forecast of the World Bank concerning the fall of the Russian economy in 2009 triggered a wave of debate in the press. Russian authorities have tried to defend their point of view, afford not to agree with WB. In the Ministry of Economy said they did not intend to change the baseline forecast for GDP, and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that the forecast WB - just "one of the scenarios." Economic growth in Russia will resume at the end of the year, the minister said.
Ministry of Economic Development does not share the assessment of the World Bank (WB) on the depth of the fall of the Russian economy in 2009 to 4.5% and maintained its forecast of 2,2%, told reporters on Tuesday, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach.
"I think the fall in GDP is less than our base forecast - 2.2%", - said Klepac. Nevertheless, the deputy minister admitted that the risks of recession in the quantity stored.
According to him, everything will depend on the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures and on how the "work" the banking sector, reports RIA Novosti. By the way, the turnaround plan will be submitted to the government on April 3, and finally considered at the meeting on April 9.
I do not agree with the assessment of the World Bank and the First Vice Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. He noted that the World Bank assumes oil prices of about $ 45 per barrel, higher than expected level of Russian Ministry of Economic Development - $ 41
Their views on this subject was also of the Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. He stressed that it is only "one scenario" that the World Bank made based on an assessment of the world economy. According to the minister, must become more familiar with the hypotheses that have adopted the World Bank for the world economy, industry demand and other sensitive areas of Russia.
"According to our forecast, in the Russian Federation will begin growth at the end of the year in the fourth quarter" - quoted Kudrin's Itar-Tass.
But experts considered the World Bank's forecast realistic. "In the first months of this year we have witnessed a catastrophic fall in the main macroeconomic indicators: industrial output, exports and imports. In this case, increasing unemployment and inflation. All this suggests that in the first quarter of 2009, Russia's economy will shrink by 7-10% ", - explained VIEW analyst FG" Kalita-Finans "Andrew Gangan.
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- -
Topical Archive 2007
Former ally into an enemy
World Bank, on whose advice all the time drew the Finance Ministry, when the World Bank supported the high inflation in the country, immediately became the enemy as soon as recommended to strengthen the ruble. In this case, the heads of the World Bank, pretended to believe that multi-directional activity of the Russian financial authorities and caught them in contradictions. In fact, we observe a simple scam, when they say one thing and do completely the opposite, and then also complain that it has not turned out that what was said.
"The World Bank had caught Russia in the incompatibility of economic priorities - writes Gazeta. (23.12.2007 / MAX TOVKAYLO, "Gazette" № 241) by the Russian financial authorities remind truism that it is impossible to keep up with several birds. "It's hard to call for foreign capital inflows and contain the ruble, to talk about the fight against inflation and the softening of the budgetary policy," - said Friday the Russian head of the World Bank (WB), Klaus Rohland.
Fighting inflation, Russia need not fear the ruble, according to World Bank experts. "This is an obvious choice, which may help at the front of the fight against inflation", - said Bogetic.
After such assessments and proposals executives (WB), the Russian press, standing on the protection of profits of the financial oligarchy and raw magnates, broke oaths. "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" responded to this article, "Bad advice for Russia, arguing that all that is offered against inflation and devaluation of the ruble, is harmful for the country.
"The World Bank launched a new portion of councils, which are useful for the socio-economic development of Russia is in serious doubt. This time, Moscow is recommended to fight inflation by raising the rate of the ruble against the dollar and euro. Russian experts will take these recommendations as "another batch of bad advice." They warn that such a course leading to reduced competitiveness of the economy, growth in imports and slower economic growth. "
In support of its position, journalists have led the world practice, allegedly contrary to the recommendations of the World Bank.
"World Bank Group to strengthen the ruble to fight inflation does not completely coincide with the practice of economic management in the U.S., EU and even China. For example, neither the Europeans nor Americans, nor even the Chinese do not dare to strengthen the national currency, despite record inflation in 2007. Moreover, the economic authorities make a clear choice between the suppression of inflation and sustaining economic activity in favor of the increase in GDP. And the rapid growth of Chinese economy is largely based on an undervalued yuan against the dollar. "
Yes, there is not any economic growth against inflation, and there, most that neither is robbing the people, through the devaluation of the ruble. What has repeatedly stated on the website "Politucheba.
With regard to China, the EU and U.S. examples are absolutely inappropriate, because they are all suppliers of goods in industrial production and consumers. Russia on the contrary, imports goods manufacturing and exporting hydrocarbons, what with her no one competes on the international market. So all these statements about the undermining of competitiveness of the ruble, not more than cover the interests of owners of oil and gas companies.
Distinguished himself at the front protect the profits of the financial oligarchy and Yevgeny Yasin, trying to take from them the accusation of unwinding of inflation.
"Loss of control over prices in 2007 due to increased government spending, increase income, which significantly outstrip productivity growth", - says the scientific director of the Higher School of Economics, Yevgeny Yasin. In his view, the need to combat rising prices in 2008 may force the government to sacrifice economic growth, just as on the eve of the 1998 crisis, the victory over inflation was achieved by a decline in GDP.
In this case, the observed simple fraud where one phenomenon is linked to other, but lower the mediating links. Yevgeny Yasin, as a supervisor of School of Economics, can not but know that inflation is the result of a sharp increase in money supply relative to the commodity. And that alone, public spending and increasing income does not lead to inflation if the costs are not produced by a throw in the turnover of additional money. And why did the Finance Ministry increased the money supply? Yes, and then to save the big capital gains, to prevent the redistribution of income for the people. Here Yevgeny Yasin, together with Kudrin, and try.
Statement by the heads of the WB is so angered the financial authorities and the Ministering journalists that they had started to hang up on him all the dogs.
In turn, the director and Resident Representative of the World Bank Klaus Rohland, Russia said Friday that if Russia's economy will achieve growth in productivity, the strengthening of the ruble will not have a significant adverse impact on the economy. True, he did not explain how to achieve such strong growth in labor productivity, and what will happen to the economy if the rate will not rise. Earlier, the World Bank noted other controversial recommendations. In particular, in November, experts of the bank offered to reduce budget expenditures and deficit of the Pension Fund to conduct a massive transfer of Russian pensioners from inpatient to home medical care (see Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 11.20.2007).
In general, the villains are sitting in the WB, and give bad advice to Russia if these tips do not lead to an increase in profits for the financiers, commodity monopolies and government officials.
Ivan Tevrizsky
24. 12. 2007
31.03.2009, Sight
Forecast of the World Bank concerning the fall of the Russian economy in 2009 triggered a wave of debate in the press. Russian authorities have tried to defend their point of view, afford not to agree with WB. In the Ministry of Economy said they did not intend to change the baseline forecast for GDP, and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that the forecast WB - just "one of the scenarios." Economic growth in Russia will resume at the end of the year, the minister said.
Ministry of Economic Development does not share the assessment of the World Bank (WB) on the depth of the fall of the Russian economy in 2009 to 4.5% and maintained its forecast of 2,2%, told reporters on Tuesday, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach.
"I think the fall in GDP is less than our base forecast - 2.2%", - said Klepac. Nevertheless, the deputy minister admitted that the risks of recession in the quantity stored.
According to him, everything will depend on the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures and on how the "work" the banking sector, reports RIA Novosti. By the way, the turnaround plan will be submitted to the government on April 3, and finally considered at the meeting on April 9.
I do not agree with the assessment of the World Bank and the First Vice Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. He noted that the World Bank assumes oil prices of about $ 45 per barrel, higher than expected level of Russian Ministry of Economic Development - $ 41
Their views on this subject was also of the Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. He stressed that it is only "one scenario" that the World Bank made based on an assessment of the world economy. According to the minister, must become more familiar with the hypotheses that have adopted the World Bank for the world economy, industry demand and other sensitive areas of Russia.
"According to our forecast, in the Russian Federation will begin growth at the end of the year in the fourth quarter" - quoted Kudrin's Itar-Tass.
But experts considered the World Bank's forecast realistic. "In the first months of this year we have witnessed a catastrophic fall in the main macroeconomic indicators: industrial output, exports and imports. In this case, increasing unemployment and inflation. All this suggests that in the first quarter of 2009, Russia's economy will shrink by 7-10% ", - explained VIEW analyst FG" Kalita-Finans "Andrew Gangan.
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- -
Topical Archive 2007
Former ally into an enemy
World Bank, on whose advice all the time drew the Finance Ministry, when the World Bank supported the high inflation in the country, immediately became the enemy as soon as recommended to strengthen the ruble. In this case, the heads of the World Bank, pretended to believe that multi-directional activity of the Russian financial authorities and caught them in contradictions. In fact, we observe a simple scam, when they say one thing and do completely the opposite, and then also complain that it has not turned out that what was said.
"The World Bank had caught Russia in the incompatibility of economic priorities - writes Gazeta. (23.12.2007 / MAX TOVKAYLO, "Gazette" № 241) by the Russian financial authorities remind truism that it is impossible to keep up with several birds. "It's hard to call for foreign capital inflows and contain the ruble, to talk about the fight against inflation and the softening of the budgetary policy," - said Friday the Russian head of the World Bank (WB), Klaus Rohland.
Fighting inflation, Russia need not fear the ruble, according to World Bank experts. "This is an obvious choice, which may help at the front of the fight against inflation", - said Bogetic.
After such assessments and proposals executives (WB), the Russian press, standing on the protection of profits of the financial oligarchy and raw magnates, broke oaths. "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" responded to this article, "Bad advice for Russia, arguing that all that is offered against inflation and devaluation of the ruble, is harmful for the country.
"The World Bank launched a new portion of councils, which are useful for the socio-economic development of Russia is in serious doubt. This time, Moscow is recommended to fight inflation by raising the rate of the ruble against the dollar and euro. Russian experts will take these recommendations as "another batch of bad advice." They warn that such a course leading to reduced competitiveness of the economy, growth in imports and slower economic growth. "
In support of its position, journalists have led the world practice, allegedly contrary to the recommendations of the World Bank.
"World Bank Group to strengthen the ruble to fight inflation does not completely coincide with the practice of economic management in the U.S., EU and even China. For example, neither the Europeans nor Americans, nor even the Chinese do not dare to strengthen the national currency, despite record inflation in 2007. Moreover, the economic authorities make a clear choice between the suppression of inflation and sustaining economic activity in favor of the increase in GDP. And the rapid growth of Chinese economy is largely based on an undervalued yuan against the dollar. "
Yes, there is not any economic growth against inflation, and there, most that neither is robbing the people, through the devaluation of the ruble. What has repeatedly stated on the website "Politucheba.
With regard to China, the EU and U.S. examples are absolutely inappropriate, because they are all suppliers of goods in industrial production and consumers. Russia on the contrary, imports goods manufacturing and exporting hydrocarbons, what with her no one competes on the international market. So all these statements about the undermining of competitiveness of the ruble, not more than cover the interests of owners of oil and gas companies.
Distinguished himself at the front protect the profits of the financial oligarchy and Yevgeny Yasin, trying to take from them the accusation of unwinding of inflation.
"Loss of control over prices in 2007 due to increased government spending, increase income, which significantly outstrip productivity growth", - says the scientific director of the Higher School of Economics, Yevgeny Yasin. In his view, the need to combat rising prices in 2008 may force the government to sacrifice economic growth, just as on the eve of the 1998 crisis, the victory over inflation was achieved by a decline in GDP.
In this case, the observed simple fraud where one phenomenon is linked to other, but lower the mediating links. Yevgeny Yasin, as a supervisor of School of Economics, can not but know that inflation is the result of a sharp increase in money supply relative to the commodity. And that alone, public spending and increasing income does not lead to inflation if the costs are not produced by a throw in the turnover of additional money. And why did the Finance Ministry increased the money supply? Yes, and then to save the big capital gains, to prevent the redistribution of income for the people. Here Yevgeny Yasin, together with Kudrin, and try.
Statement by the heads of the WB is so angered the financial authorities and the Ministering journalists that they had started to hang up on him all the dogs.
In turn, the director and Resident Representative of the World Bank Klaus Rohland, Russia said Friday that if Russia's economy will achieve growth in productivity, the strengthening of the ruble will not have a significant adverse impact on the economy. True, he did not explain how to achieve such strong growth in labor productivity, and what will happen to the economy if the rate will not rise. Earlier, the World Bank noted other controversial recommendations. In particular, in November, experts of the bank offered to reduce budget expenditures and deficit of the Pension Fund to conduct a massive transfer of Russian pensioners from inpatient to home medical care (see Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 11.20.2007).
In general, the villains are sitting in the WB, and give bad advice to Russia if these tips do not lead to an increase in profits for the financiers, commodity monopolies and government officials.
Ivan Tevrizsky
24. 12. 2007
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