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среда, 30 ноября 2011 г.

Chronic devaluation of the ruble as a source of enrichment and the impoverishment of the people of the oligarchy

 Of commodity currencies fell only rubleOn Tuesday morning, the Russian currency continued to fall, while other commodity currencies were adjusted on the Forex. So, from 6:15 GMT to 10:00 GMT major commodity currencies: Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars - rose against the U.S. dollar.Thus, the leader of the rebound was the New Zealand dollar has risen in price over the period by 3.9%. Behind him was the Australian dollar, 3.2% won back its losses against the U.S. dollar. "Canadian" went up by only 0.8%. However, the Russian ruble trading session on the Forex has demonstrated an impressive gap in the direction of reducing by 1.55% (from 28.9 rubles. To 29.35 rubles.).Thus, in the morning the Russian currency was only one among the commodity currencies, which is under pressure from external factors, fell sharply, while the other commodity currencies win back their position.
Judging by the dynamics of the ruble (which fall looks excessive, even for the current adverse conditions), as well as out of sync with the other commodity currencies, the Russian ruble being speculative attacks, and landslide reaction rate on the stock market collapsed and the oil could be due to the large volume of currency transactions carry trade along with capital outflows from the Russian financial assets due to increased risks.However, the Russian Central Bank does not take as long as the active intervention of steps to stabilize the currency market. Regulation of the situation until reduced to a expansion of the foreign exchange market MICEX upper bounds for the dollar and the euro (the border on August 9 it has been extended twice already). In our opinion, the CBR has not taken active steps to isolate the shock in the stock markets by weakening the exchange rate to maintain domestic liquidity at the time of the fall in oil prices and a collapse in external markets.According to experts interviewed by RBC, the CBR specifically allows ruble devaluation due to the fact that the exchange rate has an impact on stock indexes, creating a significant difference in the dynamics of the ruble and the dollar index MICEX Rs. For example, at 13:30 Moscow time the MICEX index was down 6.37%, while the collapse of the RTS index was stronger - at 8.05% due to the effects of currency.Analysts said Deutsche Bank, on the eve of the ruble depreciated against the currency basket, and against the dollar to levels seen in the I quarter of 2011. Reduction of the ruble was associated with a significant fall in oil prices and risk aversion, which led to capital outflows from emerging markets. CBR, however, remained faithful to its policy of more flexible exchange rate and did not carry out large-scale interventions to limit the growth of the dollar. According to analysts, Deutsche Bank, continued outflow of capital from sales of stock markets could trigger a further fall in the ruble.Elena HrupovaQuote.rbc.ruRead more: http://top.rbc.ru/economics/09/08/2011/609556.shtmlChronic devaluation
 
The Bank of Russia raised the official rate of dollar and euro
  
Trading session on Russian foreign exchange market is being held under the sign of weakening the national currency of the Russian Federation against the dollar, euro and the currency basket. Especially strong pan-European currency fell today, while the dollar changed slightly quotes.Official exchange rate of euro against ruble, the Bank of Russia overnight, up 28 cents to $ 42.64 RUR / EUR. The official dollar rate rose to 5 cents and was set at around 30.99 rubles.Currently, the U.S. currency is trading at around 31 rubles. - On a penny above the closing level of the previous trading day. For one euro in the domestic market yield 42.63 rubles. - 18 cents higher than the close of trading yesterday.Currency basket is trading at around 36.22 rubles. - Almost unchanged compared to previous close of the trading day.Experts note that the behavior of the ruble on the domestic foreign exchange market follows the movement in FOREX, where today, after the decision of the EU and the IMF to provide financial assistance to Ireland, the rise of the euro. So far, euro rose by 0.42% - up to 1.3743 dollars / euro.November 22 2010.As you can see the song is the same as a year and two and three and ten years ago.
 
Dear ruble was "a mistake"
   
Strengthening of the ruble found "error." This was stated by Finance Minister, Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin. According to the minister, entrenched ruble contributed to "reduce our competitiveness, the competitiveness of our domestic economy."Kudrin said that the ruble was in vain. "We made the most profound strengthening of the currency from the" big twenty ". This is the first major sign of our (resource) dependencies" - quoted Kudrin news agencies.At the same time Kudrin believes that it was necessary to devalue the ruble stronger than it did at the beginning of the crisis. "The measures we have taken have been half-hearted" - he said.The last phrase - home. From May 2008 to January, the Russian national currency dived to the level of 24 rubles to the dollar to around 36 rubles. The main part of her fall at this time is called "smooth devaluation."Prime Minister Vladimir Putin later explained that the ruble could bring down more sharply, but "imagine what would have been panic in Moscow exchangers?" - He exclaimed.

  
Central Bank of Russia has accelerated devaluationThe official euro exchange rate set by the Central Bank at 19 December amounted to 39.7798 rubles. Thus, the day the European currency has risen more than a ruble, but could not overcome the mark of 40 rubles. At the auction on the MICEX this psychologically important milestone was reached during the trading session on December 18. Some Russian exchangers euro also exceeded 40 rubles.Official exchange rate on December 19 will be 27.6095 rubles. That's almost nine cents more than the previous day.The simultaneous increase of the Central Bank of the dollar and the euro means that the fluctuation corridor currency basket (0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars), in which the Bank held back the fall of the ruble, has been considerably expanded. What is its upper bound, is still unclear.The sharp appreciation of the euro is partly due to the fact that the global market continues to go up the European currency to the dollar. Only in the last few days she has become stronger for a few cents and is trading at $ 1.45.
Source: Lenta.ru
 
The purpose of this policy, the Central Bank:
1. Keep the decrease of gold reserves.But as you know, these measures did not stop the decline of the Central Bank reserves pollutants. If on November 7, they accounted for 475.4 billion dollars, on December 5 - 437 billion dollars.2. Saving income exporters of hydrocarbons and metals in the fall in prices for oil and metals, by reducing the cost of labor in the country.The three largest oil producer in Russia - "Rosneft", "Lukoil" and "Gazprom oil" - reported on the record profits earned in the first nine months of 2008. The latter has done a subsidiary of "Gazprom" - according to the company, for three quarters of net profit of 5.2 billion dollars, up 84.5 per cent more than during the same period last year. Proceeds of "Gazprom oil" has risen by 86 percent to 27.32 billion dollars.Despite a significant increase in net profit, "Gazprom oil" is still not managed to overtake on the indicator of its competitors. In early December, "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" reported that their net income of $ 10.76 and $ 10.3 billion.3. The decrease in real spending in the state already designated for social programs at the expense of cheaper rate.
How much would save the state on social programs, at the expense of cheaper ruble, bude clear at the beginning of next year.
The fact that such a trivial puzzle to decide today the Central Bank confirmed the information about the high profits of oil companies.

 
  
The devaluation of the Russian oil brought 800 billion rubles
  
The weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro has brought Russian oil since August 2008 about 800 billion rubles. About this newspaper "Vedomosti".
 
According to "Rosneft", which results in the publication, for oil exporters increase the dollar at one ruble is equal to the increase in fuel price by five dollars. According to the vice-president of "Rosneft" Peter O'Braena, taking into account the devaluation and export duties align the company is working "at a cost of about $ 70 a barrel."
 
Recall, the devaluation of the Russian currency held by the Central Bank since November 2008. At that time, the value of the currency basket (0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars) amounted to little more than 30 rubles. However, in early 2009, its price exceeded 40 rubles.
 
February 12, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said during a government meeting devoted to the development of the oil industry, said the tax burden on the domestic oil industry has declined by 500 billion rubles. In part this was due to the reduction of export duties on oil, which from January 1, 2009 fell to 100.9 dollars. In the summer of last year reached a rate of duty is $ 495 per ton.Source: Lenta.ru
Journalists beguiled a pretext for the devaluation of the ruble, with a true interest, and may now wonder why the devaluation has not brought the promised results.
  
Devaluation is not in store
  
09/04/09
 
Projections of the authorities that the fall of the national currency will increase the competitiveness of Russian goods, do not come true. Working mainly on imported raw materials from the devaluation of the domestic industry has lost onlyMoney and power simply asserted that they spend a devaluation and all of it will be well after. It turns out that is not held and there is nothing good from the devaluation of the ruble, and even in front of ...
 
Prosherstim all posts recently - it is not any evidence that the devaluation has helped a particular industry, a particular production. Spell: "Fall of the national currency helps the competitiveness of national products" - does not work. But there is another examples of the perfect effect of devaluation, the government promised to us than casters.The first major well-known victim - "Izhavto." Purchasing a vehicle sets to build the Korean KIA has become uneconomic. Five thousand workers laid off. Analysts expect that there will be a TagAZ and plants of JSC "Sollers", which also operate in a similar way.A favorite of all the Russian authorities since the Politburo - "AvtoVAZ" is also suffering from the fall of the ruble. He had planned to purchase and for the "Kalina" automatic transmission up to 20% of the parts - imported, so that the plant can not raise the price of the car. Now he also receives state aid and increases prices.Well, the auto industry. But from all sectors are dealt groans, as all depends on whether the import of equipment, raw materials, whether.That, apparently, where possible spurt of domestic producers after the fall of the ruble, but in the manufacture of cosmetics and fragrances? Incomes have fallen, for certain people turn their attention to domestic creams and oils ... But no. As a share of domestic companies in this market of more than $ 9 billion third, and remains. And well, that has not fallen. So far. About 80% of the raw materials used in our factories - also imports. This means that they are forced to raise prices for their products. While the foreign corporations have much greater opportunities to manage their price than ours. Because among the approximately 150 Russian producers is dominated by small production, and that before the price increase for raw materials are staggering profits. And now, when the loan for the purchase of raw materials can not be obtained, on the verge of bankruptcy ...
http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2009/04/09_a_2971869.shtml
 
The devaluation of the Russian banks has helped to earn 900 billion rubles
 
Russian banks due to the devaluation of the ruble could earn from November 2008 to January 2009, about 800-900 billion rubles. This statement was made deputy director of the state corporation Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA), Andrew Melnikov, said the agency "Interfax". "I think that this margin of safety, we can easily block or two more to live," - said Melnikov.Smooth devaluation of the Russian currency held by the Central Bank in mid-November last year and was completed in January of this year. During this time, the ruble exchange rate against the currency basket (0.55 dollar and 0.45 euro) fell by 40 percent.Due to the devaluation of the 30 largest Russian banks, which account for 80 percent of total assets, were able to increase its profit the January almost doubled in relation to the same month of 2008. In addition, in late February it was reported that the devaluation has brought Russian oil since August 2008 about 800 billion rubles.In early February, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin admitted for devaluation of the ruble. According to him, local banks and companies were able to reserve a $ 85 billion to service its foreign currency debt, and now they have enough funds to fulfill obligations on foreign loans over the next year.
 
Source: Lenta.ruContemporary ArchiveWho prevents the strong ruble?
Look through the press about the meeting with Vladimir Putin and Alexander Kudrin headache: what is it they say? Just do not understand. It seems that many journalists, describing the meeting, did not understand."Too strong ruble, according to the president, could undermine the competitiveness of national economy" - the newspaper "Kommersant".How could undermine the national economy strong ruble? A strong, I'm taking them used the expression, may cut earnings commodity monopolies, supplying hydrocarbons to world markets, not undermine, but rather to strengthen the position of producers in other industries. The Americans recently doing everything to strengthen the dollar, recognizing that the foundation of stable existence of American manufacturers. And here, it turns out, all the way around.
On the vague statement from Putin, Kudrin still confused Bole says: "The main measures to prevent the building - is responsible Alexei Kudrin - it measures the government, but as soon as the government increases its spending by oil and gas revenues, it threatens to further strengthening. As part of the forecast, which we are prepared we will be able to hold the planned consolidation options. "Kudrin would stick to a single coordinate system, and no claim is absolutely contrary to the allegations. MPs and the people, he said that additional costs will cause inflation, and therefore they should be restricted and, in this case, the increase in costs for oil and gas revenues, according to the minister, there will be strengthening of the ruble. How will strengthen? After all expenses will be made in rubles, not dollars, and therefore will increase the ruble mass, in relation to the goods, and besides the dollar, which respectively reduce the real value of the ruble, rather than strengthen.
Journalists of "Sheets" Alexander Petrachkova, Alexander Bekker, and assessed the situation: "Strengthening of the ruble could threaten the economy, particularly the real sector, says Vladimir Putin. Therefore, the Finance Ministry and Central Bank will have to simultaneously fight inflation and the strengthening of the course."
It seems that the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank officials, who had taken too eager to fight inflation, at the request of the president, stepped on the toes of giants raw, but so painful that even Vladimir Putin undertook to support inflation.
 
"The president asked urgently to slow down the national currency," - print "News Time", "Putin instructed to slow down the ruble," - says Larisa Kaftan in "Komsomolskaya Pravda".
The fact that the strengthening of the ruble, unprofitable commodity monopolies, and this president is concerned, Putin made no secret. The President said that he had met with representatives of large companies, "they still have a margin of safety", but the rapid appreciation of the ruble could create a problem for them. Their products become more expensive compared to imports, and lose the world competition. As the government is going to save the day? "
And in production, what goods we compete if 70% of our exports of raw materials?
"We must oppose the strengthening of the ruble by all available means!" - Selflessly and with joy, said the minister. And he was not pleased! After all this time, Kudrin said the only thing that did, in favor of large monopolies, which supplies the world market oil, gas, metals, wood, and so on. Well, now, he is also the president received support. So now the wait for a new rise in prices, as Kudrin will fight to the strengthening of the ruble with renewed vigor.
There is no doubt that Putin is bent to the side of the raw material monopolies. So the only way to describe the President's statement he made at a meeting with Minister of Finance Kudrin. Six months ago, the President set the task to strengthen the ruble, reduced inflation, convertibility of the ruble, and now, under pressure from the owners of raw moguls, turns the entire policy in the opposite direction.
"How he found out after" contacts with the business' policy of strengthening the ruble could hurt the Russian economy .- According to the newspaper "Vedomosti". - And now to the Central Bank and the Government, in effect, put the triple objective: to prevent inflation, to keep the ruble and continued to increase government spending. With these introductory expect an interesting political season. If you do not resign, then the serious failures guaranteed: the task set by the president, not feasible.The situation will remain a stalemate, if not eliminate one of three objectives - subject to a two-input equation will be solved. ""To strengthen the ruble to the Russian authorities would be convenient to suppress inflation. But now, when the president ordered not to do it in front of the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank raises extremely difficult task - and not to strengthen the ruble and the rising prices to fight. - Asks blankly, "Izvestia". - So, go ahead inflation. "
Under pressure from the interests of the monopolies of raw caved in not only the president but also the government, which has developed a three-year plan to reduce the revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons. For three years the share of production tax (MET) and export taxes in budget revenues will be reduced from 50% to 30%. "This, according to Kudrin, and there is a way to reduce dependence on budget prices.
 
That's just the oil barons and their lobbyists in government, as apparently did not get scared of their dependence on oil revenues, rather pump oil and generously thank their benefactors.
Ivan Tevrizsky23/08/2006

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