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среда, 8 апреля 2015 г.

Devaluation of the ruble - fiction and truth

 The weakening of the national currency - the process of prolonged and painfulNews Newsland: The weakening of the national currency - a process long and muchitelnyyOslablyaya ruble, the government is killing two birds.Devaluation of the ruble, anti-crisis measures of the government, the rise in prices - it all become a part of the agenda and causes constant disputes.The opposition criticizes the government, the government, in turn, said the stability of the Russian economy and demonstrates confidence.What is the real situation? How dangerous depreciation of the ruble? How to save money in this difficult period?

With these questions, we turned to the head of the analytical department of the company RoboForex Andrew Goylovu.Russia for foreign investors - almost always only oil and gas- The ruble devaluation in Russia in 2014 amounted to slightly more than 65%. This was facilitated by a number of factors - from the political to the economy-wide. Each of them is important in its own way and each certainly played a powerful role in the formation of the picture that we see today and on the screens of-sale terminals, and Rosstat data, and store price tags.If we analyze the period from March 2014 to March 2015, then to the present moment devaluation is estimated at 59% with a slight. The weakening of the national currency - a lengthy process, lingering, painful for many. But for individual categories even he carries a blessing.For example, from a weak ruble benefit exporters. Russia in the eyes of foreign investors and businessmen - it is almost always only oil and gas. Selling energy to replenish the budget of the Russian Federation. However, the country's budget in the past year, and this year - in short supply. Weakening ruble, you can kill two birds with one stone and close the deficit in the budget plan, and replenish the treasury.At the same time severely affected imports. Height key rate in December 2014 to 17% per annum formed for companies engaged in import, insanely difficult situation. Access to credit money was difficult: banks stopped lending to such companies other than those that are imported into the country food.Reduction in the key rate by the Central Bank had formalBut even in this area worked hard filter - for loans could count only old customers with impeccable credit history. Imports still only works on "their", although the rate decreased and now is 14%.It turns out that the credit situation in Russia is almost not changed, everyone survives as he can. Reduction in the key rate by the Central Bank had more formal than practical, and loans for business have been and remain inaccessible.At the end of last year, authorities cheerfully reported about the rise in the manufacturing sector in Russia. In this area, in fact, was something to be proud: December industrial production index rose by a record 3.9%. However, in January the indicator gained 0.9%, and in February 2015 dipped by 1.6%. Statistics is too heterogeneous nature to talk about a marked recovery of domestic industrial production, as it would be desirable to believe it.Government and economists say that the segment of industrial production rises and due to the weak ruble, and amid rising levels of government orders. Government apparatus secured orders under long-term contracts, the defense industry. But statistics remains unstable, as a trend we are not talking. It turns out that while industrial production sector can not provide full support for the Russian economy.No one is, what to expect from the economy furtherGenerally, in February of this year in Russia was unusually informative month. For example, a research center "Romir" reported a 5% reduction in consumer spending. The fact that the purchasing power of the population is low, there is no sensation. There are even a number of positive trends, for example, the purchasing power of Russians now ceased to fall, as in 2014. But the costs will be reduced, because no one is what we expect from the economy further.Authorities do much to stabilize the situation. It was decided to subsidize the currency mortgages, recently it became known that the VTB and Sberbank reduce the interest rate on mortgages in rubles and 12% per annum. This is a good pre-crisis levels. But hardly as dramatically reduced the number of failures on mortgages. For bank mortgage product is associated with a large number of risks, they typically lay in a higher rate. In 12% voiced risks lay nowhere.Small business is still alive, he is trying to capitalize on the situation. Who is best not to use borrowed funds - neither business nor the public. Moreover, I would recommend the Russians forget about microcredit - is too high payment for quick money.The optimal way to savings still is a regular bank deposit ruble, especially as long as rates are stored in the consumer's favor. Buying currency for savings worth competently assess currency risks and costs of conversion.Based on the foregoing, in the current economic conditions, it would be productive spending cuts in the federal budget while lowering the key rate to 8.9% per annum. This would create a loose monetary conditions in the economic system and would enhance the credit sector. Stimulate lending, power smoothly could move to support domestic consumption.System to stabilize the economy multistage, you should start from the beginning.Andrew Goyle 


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