Поиск по этому блогу



воскресенье, 16 августа 2015 г.

Who arranges ruble swings?

The fall of the ruble, when the central bank will intervene?
Dmitry Bulin Bi-bi-si, Moscow August 12, 2015 On the issue of whether there is still much to weaken the ruble, experts disagree on the dollar on Wednesday on the Moscow stock exchange for the first six months exceeded 65 rubles, and the euro has exceeded the mark of 72 rubles. The main reason for the negative dynamics of the Russian currency is still the oil, which in late June lost 25% of the cost. Recent forecasts do not promise to her - and, consequently, the ruble - nothing good in the near future.
BBC Russian Service has tried to answer the main questions relating to the prospects of the Russian national currency.What will be the course?
There are two opposing points of view. Some experts say the ruble is already weakened in the absence of extraordinary, unforeseen factors unlikely to fall in price further.
"In the next two or three weeks the ruble risk is higher than the risk of weakening. You can talk about a certain stabilization of the ruble, or even correction. Oil is also oversold, suggesting that we may see it move up," - says the analyst of the currency " Opening Broker "Andrei Kochetkov.In the next two or three weeks the ruble risk is higher than the risk of weakeningAndrei Kochetkov, an analyst for the currency "Opening Broker"
The opposite point of view is based on the fact that if the oil - the main factor of the dynamics of the ruble, there may be almost any exchange rate fluctuations, as the last year has shown that oil is unpredictable.
"Because of the fundamental factors that could help to strengthen the ruble to a more solid foundation, it is seen only oil. If someone has forecast that it will grow, it will help to strengthen the ruble, or remain stable. We [at Sberbank CIB] cautious outlook for oil: it is unlikely to be able to strengthen seriously enough to influence the ruble in the direction of strengthening the long-term, "- said a senior strategist at Sberbank CIB Vladimir Pantyushin.
To summarize: in the coming weeks may be multidirectional fluctuations (in the direction of strengthening), but in half a year-year horizon, the more reason to preserve the negative dynamics, if the Central Bank does not intervene - or oil suddenly will not go up.Why falling ruble?
There are several factors, chief among which is oil. More than 50% of federal budget revenues and 68% of Russia's total exports in 2013 accounted for hydrocarbons. Budget losses from the decline in oil prices from $ 100 to $ 50 per barrel will amount to 180 billion dollars per year, in February, said the director of the Department of the Ministry of Finance of Russia Maxim Oreshkin.
Ultimately, the lower the oil, the national currency listed below.
Published this week, the latest predictions about the outlook of oil prices rather pessimistic. The International Energy Agency on Wednesday described the situation on the world oil market as "mad increase in supply", which will continue throughout 2016. Although the parallel increase in supply and growing demand, the first indicator shows a more rapid dynamics.The question "why the ruble falls," the answer is almost always the same: because oil is getting cheaper
The World Bank forecast published on Tuesday, according to which after the removal of sanctions on Iran, a sharp increase in the volume of oil in the market can lead to lower prices are still $ 10. If this happens, the annual losses amount to Russia, according to experts of the bank, 34 billion dollars.
Another factor affecting the exchange rate is the rate of inflation. The report of the analytical center of the Russian government, released Wednesday, indicates that consumer prices for all key socially important goods for the year grew to double digits.
In particular, in May 2015 the average consumer price of beef rose by 23% compared to May 2014, for pork - by 22%, cheese - 20%, frozen fish - by 38%, carrot - by 39%, apples - by 37%, cereals and legumes - by 49.2%.
Total inflation in the country is estimated by Rosstat at 15.6% in July of last year.
In addition, the negative impact on the dynamics of the downturn has in the Russian economy, as well as the expectation of news from the United States, where in September the Fed is very likely to raise interest rates.What are the consequences of the fall of the ruble?
They are not the same for the state and for the citizens. The Russian budget will receive thanks to the weakening of the ruble compensation for the drop in oil prices.
This was said in the past year, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, noting that the budget is important, not the dollar and the ruble value of the barrel. Then, while reducing oil and the ruble she remained at 3,600 rubles, which allowed for the year to reduce the budget with a surplus of 1.2 trillion rubles. Now the cost of a barrel of oil is around 3,200 rubles.
A weak exchange rate is favorable in terms of import substitution as making Russian goods more competitive in comparison with the similar import.
However, the loss of exporters due to lower oil prices, the overall slowdown in the economy, the financial difficulties of enterprises tied to imports, would mean a smaller tax collection and the growing budget deficit. This year it has already reached 2.8 trillion rubles (3% of GDP).
Citizens of Russia in the conditions of depreciation of the ruble are suffering losses: at the expense of increased cost of imports, and by heating the inflation (according to experts of the government - 20% of the inflation rate responds precisely devaluation). Devaluation and inflation literally eat the real incomes of citizens: minek previously predicted their decline this year by 6.3%.How can the government stop the fall of the ruble?
Responsible for monetary policy is the central bank. In his arsenal is a serious instrument of influence on the course.
If declared free exchange rate, he may intervene and to enter the market by selling part of the foreign reserves. However, this option in the short term is not all it seems reasonable from the point of view of the logic of the Central Bank.
"I think this scenario is unlikely, because the central bank has repeatedly stated desire to increase its reserves. In the case of interventions, the money given to permanently", - said Vladimir Pantyushin of Sberbank CIB.
Therefore, he said, the central bank is more likely to take advantage of the proven scheme of currency repurchase agreements under which banks provide money for the loan conditions.
On Monday, the Bank of Russia has just said that from the space reserved for such operations $ 50 billion are undrawn $ 14 billion.In many ways the Central Bank to support the ruble, but where is the devil, after the passage of which the Office of Elvira Nabiullina considers it necessary?
The Bank may also influence the course, holding ruble liquidity and artificially creating a demand for it.
Another tool - increase the key rate, but this is contrary to the general policy of the Central Bank, aimed at its gradual reduction (reduction was the latest round in late July - up to 11% per annum). In addition, this measure is detrimental to the economy, which can not thrive with expensive loans.You can expect a reaction of the Central Bank in case the course gives way for a few days to several rubles to about 68 rubles per dollarVladimir Pantyushin, senior strategist at Sberbank CIB
Influence the course may also finance ministry by selling the currency from the Reserve Fund to finance the budget deficit in July was sold $ 3.7 billion.
However, the main question remains unanswered: where is the feature that after crossing the central bank finds it necessary to intervene?
"Assuming that Brent is $ 50, then you can expect the reaction of the Central Bank in case the course gives way for a few days to several rubles to about 68 rubles to the dollar", - said Vladimir Pantyushin.
"After 65 rubles at the Central Bank are beginning to question arises: would not a weakening of the ruble to the heating of inflation. We are close to those values, which the Central Bank will begin to interfere," - says Andrei Kochetkov.
As it happened in 201428/01/2014 - Lower ... podderzhali..milliard taken and again lowered
Goldman Sachs: CB forced to devalue the ruble
Quote.rbc.ru 28.01.2014 10:42
The rapid depreciation of the ruble continues. Since the beginning of the Russian currency, according to estimates of economists Goldman Sachs, lost 4.8% in value. Although the bank's experts expected weakening of the ruble, it was still hope that the favorable seasonality would support the ruble in the I quarter of 2014. However, analysts believe that the main reason was the weakness of the ruble exchange rate mechanism of the CBR.
In connection with the current pace of ruble depreciation experts Goldman Sachs were forced to revise their forecasts. Forecast for 3, 6 and 12 months for the basket is now 41, 41.3 and 41.5 rubles. (Previous forecast - 37.5, 38.5 and 39.5 rubles., Respectively). According to a new forecast for the dollar during these periods of 35, 35, and 35.2 rubles.
Given the current political and economic reality in Russia, the Central Bank has never hard to gain credibility as an inflation fighter. Many agents prefer to see soft economy and weak ruble policy, not just banks. For example, the Ministry of Finance profitable soft monetary policy and cheap ruble, since half of the budget and a third of government revenues are dependent on the weakness of the national currency. Thus, it is not surprising that the regulator is under constant pressure to change course.
The current weakening of the ruble could be explained by speculation in the market is that the transition to a floating exchange rate of the Central Bank will be forced to abandon its previous position. However, Goldman Sachs believe otherwise. According to analysts, the Central Bank will refuse the intervention of the corridor and at the same time focus on inflation. Moreover - according to economists, until the end of the year inflation will not keep to the target of 5%, so the regulator will not be able to soften the policy, without losing the hard-won trust.
According to forecasts of Goldman Sachs, while interest rates in Russia will not change. And in fact, there is a risk that the central bank will have to tighten monetary policy in order to achieve the desired level of inflation.
Although from a legal point of view, the Russian Central Bank is independent, he still is not insulated from political influence, and, given the economic actors, who prefer a soft policy, the regulator will have to fully support the President's strategy.
So far, the hopes for seasonal support the ruble did not materialize. The main reason for the pressure on the current account, even without taking into account the rise in oil prices, was a steady increase in imports. However, the slowdown in the economy, the slower growth of the real effective exchange rate by reducing inflation and import substitution in certain sectors of the economy, import growth slowed. In 2013. the dollar value of imports grew by only 2.5% (or $ 8.7 billion.). Given that exports are still 50% higher import volumes can easily grow by 3-4%, without compromising the trade balance. Thus, the dynamics of the balance of trade has no impact on the ruble.
In fact, other factors are putting pressure on the current account. For example, trips abroad and a weak balance of income. According to economists Goldman Sachs, the current sharp increase in spending on tourism is gradually subside. On trips abroad, Russians now spend 3% of GDP compared with 1.9% in Canada and 3.4% in Norway. It will be interesting to take a look, analysts say, how to change the trend of investment in tourism in Sochi. Despite the fact that predict something in this case, it is difficult in itself, this factor is unlikely to have a significant impact on the ruble, the bank concluded.
Material provided by Goldman Sachs

Central Bank put $ 1 billion to support the national currency
28.01.2014 8:19Yesterday, the Central Bank conducted the most extensive foreign exchange intervention in October 2011. According to market participants, yesterday the Bank of Russia sold about $ 1 billion, keep the rate of the currency basket at the level of 40.31 rubles. However, such expenditure may only delay the weakening of the ruble, but not stop it.
Yesterday, from the very beginning of the trading session, the Bank of Russia began to actively intervene in its course. According to dealers, on the background of a sharp depreciation of the currency basket and reaching the upper limit of the corridor at 40.5 rubles. The Central Bank started to unlimited "cumulative" currency intervention. According to the Head of the Monetary and Financial Department Citibank Denis Korshilova, the Central Bank to support the ruble could sell up to $ 1 billion. "Judging by the fact that the maximum of the currency basket reached 40.65 rubles., It can be assumed that the Central Bank moved Corridor 15 kopecks. It can fit almost $ 1 billion of interventions "- evaluates and chief analyst at Nordea Bank Dmitry Savchenko. As a result of actions of the Central Bank exchange currency trading volume remained at a high level: the total volume of trading in dollars with delivery "tomorrow" yesterday was $ 7.5 billion, which is comparable to the previous two days and twice the average trading volume in December.
The last time such an active Central Bank sold the currency for more than two years ago, at the beginning of October 2011. Then one day on October 5, he sold the currency to $ 1.17 billion. On other days, his presence was limited mainly planned shopping corridor inside semirublevogo currency fluctuations. Thus, in December and January he acquired about $ 200 million a day.
The active intervention of the Central Bank in exchange trading had a positive impact on the ruble. At the end of the trading session the dollar, to rise in the course of trading to the level of 34.862 rubles ./$, closed at 34.6 rubles ./$ that only 5 kopecks. above Friday's close. The euro closed at 47.29 rubles. / €, down 2 kopecks. below the previous day's close. As a result, the value of the currency basket rose symbolic 2 kopecks., To 40,31 rubles.
"Despite the apparent freedom of movements in exchange rates after the lifting of targeted interventions, the regulator has not withdrawn from the market completely, - the analyst of bank" Zenith "Vladimir Evstifeev.- Therefore, access to the zone of increased intervention continues to limit the ardor of those players who are set to more drastic weakening of the ruble. "
However, not only the decisive action of the Central Bank had an impact on the domestic currency market. According to currency dealers for overall business conditions influenced the correction that took place yesterday in the currency markets of a number of developing countries. According to Bloomberg, the course of the Turkish lira against the US dollar yesterday rose by 2%, the Mexican peso and the Singapore dollar rose 0.2%. So investors reacted to the Bank of Turkey's intention to hold an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday. "In 2006 and 2011 the Turkish regulator also held emergency meetings at which sharply raised its key interest rate. This had a positive impact on the lira, - said Denis Korshilov.- Investors hope that after the Bank of Turkey with the support of the national currencies of other central banks act developing countries. " According to the head direction on Macroeconomics bank "Petrocommerce" Dmitry Kharlampiev to maintain the ruble Russian Central Bank may go for a purposeful limitation Scope of refinancing commercial banks.
Nevertheless, market participants believe that the increase in the cost of the currency basket in the near future will continue. A key influence on the behavior of investors will have the results of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve, said Mr. Korshilov. According to the average forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the Fed meeting on January 28-29, will reduce purchases of assets by $ 10 billion to $ 65 billion a month, and will continue to minimize the QE pace at subsequent meetings. Such a decision could serve to further strengthen the US currency on world markets. "At this meeting, the Fed is likely to continue to reduce the incentive program, and it's not very good news for emerging currencies," - said Dmitry Savchenko. In addition, the weakening of the ruble will contribute to ending the current week period of tax payments, since with it reduced demand for rubles from exporters.
Source: Kommersant


January 14, 2014 the Central Bank announced that refuses to carrying out targeted interventions in the foreign exchange market. Previously, the maximum amount of such interventions amounted to 60 million USD. A day. At the same time the central bank will continue to pursue non-target interventions to smooth out sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate when it goes beyond the width of the neutral range of 3.1 rubles. around the middle of the corridor. In the past year, from $ 27 billion. Sold by the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market, $ 16 billion. Had to targeted interventions, ie more than half of the total intervention of the Central Bank does not lead to a shift of the corridor of the currency basket. Thus, the rejection of this tool is an important step towards greater volatility of the ruble. No less important role played by this measure in the context of reductions related to the sale of the Central Bank currency outflows from the banking sector in the face of growing shortages of liquidity.
Euro on the "Moscow Exchange" exceeded 48 rubles., The currency basket - 41 rubles.January 29. FINMARKET.RU - Euro today renewed its historical maximum, "the Moscow stock exchange", rising above 48 rubles, against the backdrop of the fall of the ruble and other currencies of emerging markets. The cost of the currency basket has exceeded 41 rubles. The dollar rose to "the Moscow stock exchange" to 18:17 MSK to 35.25 rubles., Adding 51 kopecks. The euro thus reached 48.15 rubles., The currency basket - 41.06 rubles. The fall of the ruble strengthened against the background of instability in the global currency market.

Комментариев нет:

Отправить комментарий