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пятница, 28 августа 2015 г.

Who plays with the ruble?

  Another collapse of the ruble: external causes or internal chaos?
Yuri Boldyrev about the true purpose of government policies
Thus, the ruble again, "poured". Explanation immutable: what you want, when oil fell to forty-five dollars a barrel? And as agreed. And no one asks the question: where and what a sudden there was this bunch of hard - oil prices and the health of our national currency? What is this - some kind of objective economic laws operating independently of our and someone else will? Or someone's conscious actions, but then dictated what else?

Generally about money, especially "in the fateful moments" (another drop in the ruble devaluation, and our savings, and so on. N.), It is interesting to all. But on the constitutional norms, that no matter what happens, whether it's eating us with you our power (fraction - native oligarchy) without bread and salt directly in accordance with constitutional rules, or, on the contrary, absolutely it contrary, as I understand it, very few people care about. However, I would venture to link these two themes.
Thus, the statement of (my) first official: no objective economic relationship in the world price of oil and the value of the Russian national currency - a relationship that would have acted on their own, regardless of one's faith - not.
Let me explain: the ruble to the dollar tied only four factors:
- The ratio of what you can buy on the ruble and the dollar (the relationship by purchasing power parity);
- Expected profitability and reliability of savings in rubles and dollars (interest rates, but given the risks, including the risk of falling, currency depreciation);
- The ratio of the objective supply and demand; taking into account the fact that a large demand for our currency abroad No, it is clear that it is about the supply and demand for the dollar in rubles, and this factor is not completely independent, but tied not only to the need for the purchase of goods for rubles, but the possible profitability of the transfer of savings from rubles into dollars to improve profitability and / or reliability of savings;
- Actions of global speculators and their native Central Bank to maintain a certain level of deviation from the natural course - purchasing power parity.
So, all of these factors fall in the world price of oil directly affects only one third factor - the ratio of demand and supply of foreign currency, rather, only one of its components - the number of dollars coming into the country from overseas sales of our oil. And that is not so straight.
Firstly, not all of the earlier currency received "our" private oil companies (registered offshore) from the sale of oil, came to the country and, especially, falling on the foreign exchange market. After the abolition of the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by companies currency on the market offers as much as they needed rubles - for the current work, payment of wages, taxes, and so on. N. That is, the supply of currency by companies from the sale of oil was with significant headroom with respect to what they were selling and then on our currency market for rubles. And if before the Central Bank was not a formal but a real challenge to maintain the stability of the ruble, the first sound and proven tool known - the introduction of (the return of) the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings - and now the demand and supply of currency would be re-balanced. But this tool is not used - why?
Secondly, as our power, as is well known, holds a "tax maneuver", which includes the planned replacement of the oil export duty (ie, the guaranteed income to the budget currency) internal taxes on the extraction of minerals (in rubles). How much do you want to ingenuity to assess in which direction this factor operates - to increase the guaranteed supply of currency and the strengthening of the ruble, or, on the contrary, the lack of currency and the weakening of the ruble?
Third, the rate of consumption of imported goods in the period of relatively prosperous life in the "fat" times - alone, in a period of declining revenues due to the fall in the value of the main export commodity - different. More recently, we have earnestly discussed, reducing the resolution is the purchase price for the budget money cars for state officials to five million apiece, or only up to four (it when still dollar cost thirties rubles), despite the fact that if, for case, then the "Zhiguli" of 300 thousand. rubles domestic and, especially, any poluinostranny "Renault Logan" 400 thousand for the same officials are quite capable of where to drop off. Obviously it was that with fat rage ...
And now the "disturbing" reports about the decline in our sales of new cars. So there was an accident? Or simply and naturally reduced the demand for foreign currency, for which the majority of these cars (and screwdriver assembly we have - almost ready kits) purchased abroad? That is, the reduction of foreign currency supply in the foreign exchange market does not necessarily correspond to the preservation of the old demand for it and, consequently, higher prices. In terms of the objective reduction of income (and the oil companies, the state and the population), no less a natural reaction - and proportional reduction in demand for the currency, while maintaining the same rate of exchange, in other words, while maintaining the same value of the ruble.
Fourth, we return to the already ubiquitous nauseam theme straight "according to the Central Bank of the US Federal Reserve" (as well as the IMF) and allegedly carried out by our central bank policy "kerensi board" - of issuing just so many rubles, how much currency it to the Central Bank. Such statements repeatedly made-recognition of the current Minister of Economic Development Ulyukaev - when he was the deputy chairman of the Central Bank. The paradox is that the same people, without batting an eye, accused the central bank in this "kerensi board" (so far, although the policy in this part has changed many times), and at the same time talk about the "naturalness" depreciation rubles due to lower world oil prices. Without being in any way a defender of our Central Bank and considering his course is absolutely disastrous for the country, however, I pay attention that there's just one thing:
- Or rubles printed exactly as long as the Central Bank has received the currency (as a mechanism to ensure continuity of the course and its tight peg to the rate of the world's reserve currency - "kerensi board"), but then to reduce the rate of the ruble is not absolutely no reason at all; that is, everything can fall apart: the enterprise budget, households, but up to the last ruble remains rock;
- Or rubles printed as long as necessary from any other reasons - to maintain the various sectors of the economy (the fraction of the oligarchs), budget, and social obligations and so on. N., But then neither of which "kerensi board" does not have to lead people misleading.
And fifth - a factor psychologically not want to against our national currency acted factor of mass panic transfer savings into dollars in a more reliable currency - do not allow, and, moreover, do not provoke not organize the collapse of the national currency , as was done last autumn 2014.
My second statement: in terms of the objective reduce state revenues from energy exports, fair limitation household incomes - salaries and other payments - would be struck by the people and the economy of less than obvalivanie of the national currency and the subsequent inflation. In the first (again, more honest) version to a tightening of belts could be forced not the most poor and disadvantaged. In an embodiment, the second - now realizable - suffering the most are already the most disadvantaged (inflation for the "bottom" always objective - for the consumer basket - more and more painful than the "top").
My third statement. No matter how destructive policies pursued earlier periodically "kerensi board" in terms of the need for monetization of the productive economy and the interests of the industrial development of the country, paradoxically, it is formally consistent with the constitutional problem of a central bank "to ensure the stability of the ruble," rather than the policies pursued now.
Let me explain. It was very rough, clumsy but effective tool - as long as other challenges to the Central Bank formalized not staged. Possible and necessary tools and other - allowing not only to ensure the stability of the national currency, but also to the air industry development opportunities. And it's not that about them, no one knows. The fact that their application, more precisely, on the organization of the accelerated economic development (meaning not parasitic, but the performance of the economy), the authorities were not (as, indeed, and there still is) the political will.
And my fourth application. And what would be consistent with the constitutional objectives now pursued a policy of the Central Bank? What could have been written in the Constitution to the current actions of the Central Bank of recording strictly conform? Formulate "Sustaining companies - exporting unprocessed raw materials and maximize their profits - the main objective of the Central Bank of Russia."
You dare to challenge?
I dare anyone now dispute the fact that if it is such a record would be contained in our Constitution, and if the management of the Central Bank strictly follow the constitutional purpose of this would be, it would take place in exactly the policy pursued now?
And then - no so-called "cognitive dissonance": realpolitik and conform strictly to the Basic Law of the country then, and everything is now so widespread allegations of "natural" rate of the ruble, depending on world oil prices strictly correspond to the truth.
And with this knowledge and understanding do we do?
Does the Constitution - to record whether it is fair that the main thing for us - super-profits raw oligarchy, and everything else - ignore?
Or, to initiate an investigation and prosecute those who now violates the Constitution (with all its imperfections, but there is clearly - in the part of all of us somehow to protect), and along with those of their covers?
Or do we live as we live, literally, on the lawlessness - in conditions, when direct rule of the Constitution and the law do not mean anything at all ...
Yuri Boldyrev
Source: svpressa.ru  


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