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вторник, 4 августа 2015 г.

Misty prospects of the Russian economy or running with a noose around his neck

Invitation to recessionThe crisis in the Russian economy will only accelerate if the central bank will continue its current policyAutumn 2015 in Russia may become the beginning of a new recession. On Friday, July 31, zayavilsovet Directors of the Bank of Russia.According to analysts of the Central Bank, "the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators point to a further cooling of economic activity." A "low consumer and business confidence, reducing capacity utilization and labor" will lead to "a further reduction in consumer spending."The text of the statement stated underestimation of the Bank of Russia in previous versions of the forecast period, the decline in domestic demand in the economy, due to which "the forecast annual GDP growth rates may be revised downward."

"In the future, the economic situation will depend on the dynamics of world prices for energy, while compared with the June estimates of the increased likelihood of the scenario with a prolonged preservation of oil prices at a level no higher than $ 60 per barrel," - the document says.In other words, the Central Bank analysts warn that in the September forecast of the Central Bank, in its pessimistic scenario, GDP decline in 2015 may be lower than 4%. Meanwhile, a few days ago, July 27, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev was set up much more optimistic and confident promise that "the lowest point" GDP growth is passed - by the end of the recession in 2015 will not exceed 2.6-2.8%.But no matter how different assessments of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy, "the hour of X" close. In the third quarter of 2015 accounted peak payments on external debt - about 40 billion dollars. In the autumn of the same is expected and a serious increase in tension in the foreign exchange market.The trigger for switching scenarios "moderate" to "pessimistic" can become a decision of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to increase the key rate. Recall now the financial analysts believe that the rate may be raised as early as this September - indirectly evidenced by falling commodity prices for oil. The result of this decision of the US regulator will weaken the euro against the dollar, as well as rapid and massive capital outflows from emerging markets, including Russia.Quick-lowering rates to the Bank of Russia is a new pressure on the ruble, the deterioration of expectations in industry and trade in the third quarter, as well as inflation. All this will push the central bank to tighten monetary policy, and the Russian government - to the adoption of a new package of anti-crisis measures. For example, to emergency implementation of the idea of ​​the bank bad debts.What really waiting for the fall of the Russian economy, as it will be a protracted fall?- It's not about a new recession and worsening of the current situation - said the head of "Finance and Economics" Institute of Contemporary Development Nikita Maslennikov. - Just when the economy moves from recession into a prolonged stagnation, the growth rate at the end of the year are almost always lower than expected.In this case, the Bank of Russia did not prevaricate. He had warned in June that, according to his estimates, the decline in GDP in 2015 will amount to 3.2%. Now, analysts do not rule out some of the Central Bank further reducing.- As now seems the consensus forecast decline in GDP?- At present, the consensus forecast - 3.7%. About the level of decline predicts the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IE RAS). The decline in the range 3.2-3.5% Expected Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), the decline of 3.4% - VEB. The most pessimistic forecast of the "Development Centre" Higher School of Economics, who believes that in the II quarter GDP fell by 5.5%, while the decline for the year can go up to 4.8%.- What caused such a variation in the estimates?- Much depends on the assessment of the current situation, but it is changing. In June, in fact, there were signs that the Russian economy has reached the "bottom", and there may be some increase in the coming months. However, risk analysis, which appeared in July, has changed the opinion of experts. Most analysts now take the view that if the Russian economy and out of the fall, then steadily lie down on the "bottom" and, figuratively speaking, will move on the "bottom" on all fours and touch.An analysis of the current situation, the optimistic fervor cools. In particular, it makes cautious look at the Economy Ministry forecast, which refers to the fall of GDP in the year to 2.6-2.8%.- How adequately the Bank of Russia estimates the situation in the economy?- In my opinion, it is quite sober assessment. Risks of the second half of 2015 is really significant, and they will have an impact on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators.While at the end of July, we see a very sluggish pace in almost all industries of the Russian Federation. Investments are at the same level in June, and consumer demand has not improved - compared with last year fell by 10% (when compared to the real income of the population). In fact, the drivers of growth in the Russian economy are not.There is an important indicator - the composite leading index (SDI) of the Russian economy. In June, he was "minus" 3.6%. This suggests that in the next two or three months a rapid and front-end termination of the recession is not expected.That is symptomatic of the Central Bank for the first time listed the main risks of the second half. They are connected with the fact that can be reduced the contribution of net exports to GDP is the only component of the Russian economy, which is now working in the plus. The Bank of Russia also lowered the forecast current account surplus to 93 billion dollars in 2015 to 65-70 billion dollars.- What are the reasons for such a review?- First of all, falling oil prices: win back markets withdrawal from Iran international sanctions. Against this background, the price of "black gold" is unlikely to return to $ 60 per barrel before the end of 2015. Rather, they will be in the range of $ 50-55.Plus, the oil price is putting pressure continued deceleration in China. It is, incidentally, can be accelerated recurrence of the crisis on the Chinese stock markets.- What does this mean for Russia?- These are serious factors weakening of the ruble. Ruble, of course, is highly dependent on oil prices. And with the price of "black gold" of 50-55 dollars per barrel a fair rate of the Russian national currency - 60-63 rubles per dollar.Meanwhile, the ruble exchange rate adjustment will necessarily be passed on to domestic prices. This, in turn, will recharge inflation. No coincidence that Russia's Finance Ministry has forecast inflation in 2015 at 11%, and experts are increasingly talking about 11.5-12%.A higher inflation - the less motivation for investors, and the longer recovery will be consumer demand.Plus, of course, an external shock may be US Federal Reserve decision to raise the key rate. If the US regulator will raise rates in September, the Russian economy will feel the negative effect in the form of capital flight and a further weakening of the ruble in October-December. This will cause a further rise in prices on the domestic market, and serve as an additional drag on the economy.As a result, according to my estimates, Russia's economy will be able to go to grow until the II quarter of 2016 ...- I believe that the crisis in the Russian economy will only accelerate if the Central Bank will continue the current policy, - said chairman of the Foundation for Economic Research Mikhail Khazin. - This policy is a total ban on the establishment of the ruble economy.We got a "piece" of the high oil prices, which was due to the fact that America and the European Union to stimulate demand. However, this scheme does not work anymore. The United States in 2014 drastically reduced the emission of the dollar - as if they do issue only in the scale of financing the budget deficit.As a result of that in the European Union that the United States is the decline of the economy, but it is statistical agencies mix the. GDP grew at them formally, but grew and debts and loans have to be returned. As a result, there is no economic growth because final demand, especially private, continues to fall.All this is reflected in the Russian economy. I think by the end of 2015 Russia's GDP decline by 8% ...Andrey Polunin    


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