With branches "MONEY" offline website "Derbent Wall Part 24 Klark Date: 24.08.2008 11:41:09 Money market only for a few The Central Bank of Russia plans to tighten capital requirements for credit institutions. Only with one amendment of the Central Bank is going to clean the market from unscrupulous players to withdraw the license of which can not yet. Under attack would be almost a third of credit organizations in Russia. Amendments to the Law on Banks and Banking Activity ", establishing the amount of minimum capital for the bank at € 5 million, is almost ready. According to estimates of the Central Bank first deputy chairman Gennady Melikyan, it will reduce the number of credit organizations, about 400 banks in 1125, working at the moment in Russia, reports Kommersant. The Central Bank and previously attempted to restrict the number of existing financial institutions by increasing the minimum capital requirements. Eighteen months ago, the legislation was amended to require banks are starting to work on the Russian market, have a minimum capital of € 5 million. However, at that time the government has made bankers indulgence as a right not to raise the level of capitalization, provided that the level that existed before the adoption of an amendment does not decrease. At the time of adoption of the law in about half of the banks' share capital was then below € 5 million. Now the Bank of Russia is once again concerned about the large number of credit institutions. Amending the Act, the Central Bank does not hide his intention to clear the market of dubious players. "In Russia there are several" canned "banks in which one group of people moving from one such bank to another and carries dubious operations," - said Mr. Melikyan. However, in his view, the introduction of new requirements may be gradual: "Maybe we'll set a time period during which banks will have to increase its capital to the required level. For example, by January 1 to bring the capital up to € 3 million, to January 1, 2012 - up to € 5 million. " The result of such stringent requirements, on a plan of the Central Bank must be reorganized banks with inadequate capital in non-bank credit organizations (NGOs) or withdrawal from the market of banking.
However, under attack themselves and the banks who comply with the law. They are unlikely to be beneficial to join with other banks, since the merger of the Russian legislation is still very complicated. To get re NCO they also did not want due to the loss of the retail market.
------------------------------------------ And what about self control? RE: Money Author: Klark Date: 25.08.2008 22:11:49 Russia's reserves are in the center of financial storm U.S. mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, through which the lion's share of all mortgage loans in the U.S. will cease to exist in its previous form. What will happen to Russian money from the Stabilization Fund, which the Russian Finance Ministry has placed in their debt securities? The two largest mortgage agencies, the U.S., as independent companies came to an end, said recently multibillionaire Warren Buffett (Warren Buffett). "Game over, - the richest man in the world by Forbes magazine and head of Berkshire Hathaway. - They were allowed to borrow without any restrictions. They have carte blanche (on loan) from the federal government. " Recall, these agencies were at the epicenter of the global financial crisis that began with a wave of defaults on the mortgage market in the U.S.. Fannie and Freddie are private companies that purchase the large pools of mortgage loans and transform them into its own securities. Due to the weak (sometimes - obviously), credit risk, these loan portfolios turned out to be a huge number of borrowers at risk. With whom, then, actually, and began payments crisis. In the course of trading on Thursday last week the share price of Fannie and Freddie dropped to its lowest level in 20 years on fears that the government will have to resort to rescue the two companies, which account for more than half the U.S. mortgage market volume of $ 12 trillion. Buffett believes that the U.S. economy will weaken against the backdrop of the continuing recession that will last at five years, the U.S. economy are waiting for change for the better, but five months later, the situation can only deteriorate. The investor also noted that the impact of the credit and mortgage crisis continuing to negatively affect the economy in general and financial sector companies in particular. It is worth noting that a similar viewpoint is shared by Harvard University professor and former economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kenneth Rogoff. According to him, the global financial crisis is far from complete, and the American economy is experiencing serious problems. "The U.S. is still very far from full recovery. There is every reason to believe that the financial crisis only reached the middle. Moreover, it is likely that the worst is yet to come "- he said. Meanwhile, last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson won from Congress authorization to provide capital mortgage companies (in the form of loans or buy stock) if necessary. However, so far, according to multiple statements, the U.S. Treasury does not plan to use this option, preferring to keep it in case of sudden deterioration in the market. At the same time K. Rogoff cautioned that "in the coming months we can see not only the collapse of the average American banks, but also the failure of one of the largest U.S. investment bank - says ex-IMF economist. - It is possible that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, despite assurances the Minister of Finance Henry Paulson, will cease to exist in its current form. " Sam Warren Buffett (Warren Buffett) has declared on air of CNBC, that long before the crisis got rid of the papers of one of the mortgage agencies - Freddie Mac. In 2000-2001, owned by Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. owned a controlling stake Freddie: «Everything they do - it is pleasing to Wall Street quarterly reports" - said Buffett. In his view, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will not be able to overcome the crisis without the infusion of investors, but he expressed doubt that these resources can come from private companies. Shares of the two largest U.S. mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have lost since the beginning of the year about 90% of its value. According to the New York Times, the government should inject at least $ 20 billion in each of these companies in order to keep them afloat.
What bude with Russian money invested in American mortgage?
We recall that a month ago of the Russian government, in particular the Minister Alexei Kudrin for "sponsoring" American mortgage harshly criticized by experts Bigness.ru. Russia risked their savings, says the director of the analytical laboratory "Vedi" Alex Vedev: "Experience shows that not much we can be confident in the profitability of such infusions. Investing oil money in deposits, treasury bonds, other bonds, we actually stand just investors who somehow keep track of the markets. If I remember correctly, now yield the same U.S. government bonds - 4.3% per annum in dollar terms. Rubel return due to jumps dollar have a negative "- cites the expert. With it fully agrees with him Academician Sergei eyes: "Russia has already lost enough to continue to invest in a volatile U.S. economy. Until now, the whereabouts of the money invested in American mortgage-backed bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ». According to him, what happened now with the collapse of American mortgage system, everything is "on the conscience of Alexei Kudrin, who during this past year, and about twenty times said that you can not keep the currency reserves and stabilization fund in the U.S. debt. However, he continued his policy of investments in the rapidly falling U.S. securities, blindly following the recommendations of the U.S. Treasury. " According to him in American mortgage securities today halted the order of hundreds of billions of dollars. Return the money Russia will at best in five years. However, several other analysts prefer to do not dramatize the situation. According to another interlocutor of our portal, analyst bank "TRUST" Yevgeny Nadorshin, the intervention of the U.S. federal regulators to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the background of the new shares collapse of two mortgage giants should save the Russian money. To soothe the Russians, Russian Finance Ministry last month also issued an official statement saying that the debt obligations of mortgage companies (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Federal Home Loan Banks) can be calm. These bonds, whose volume as at 1 January 2008 amounted to 100.8 billion dollars (about 20% of all Russian treasury), still have the highest credit rating, trailing only the reliability of U.S. Treasury securities. Ministry of Finance has assured that "in accordance with the current procedures the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund in the securities of these agencies are not placed. Debt obligations of the State accountable to the U.S. mortgage agencies in a limited amount used by the Bank of Russia to the placement of international reserves. Unlike stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, quotes of their debt remains stable "- stated in a press release the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. Thus, in its credit quality of debt obligations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac did not actually concede to the U.S. sovereign debt obligations and still have the highest credit rating that meets the requirements necessary to accommodate the foreign reserves - Kudrin assured the Office. Analyst bank "TRUST" confident that with high probability the restructuring of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guarantee that with Russia on all debt payments will be made: "I believe that for our investment experience totally worth it. If they will do so through the purchase of preferred shares of companies like this were going to do, then debt will remain with debt and do not worry, it will not happen ", 2 - he shares with our readers.
The expert points out that "Russia holds these securities until maturity, that is, we get exactly as much as expected, did not lose a penny. A few months ago, in late June, representatives of the Central Bank said that 50% of the securities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac already repaid. Another six months and there will be about 10% of our money "- concludes E. Nadorshin.
Natalia Trefilova Source: bigness.ru RE: Money Author: Klark Date: 30.08.2008 13:59:16 CB will check on the quality of The Chamber insists on the study of the effectiveness of foreign exchange reserves management In September, at the next meeting of the National Banking Board (NBB) will return to the issue of verifying the effectiveness of the Central Bank in its management of foreign exchange reserves of Russia. On Thursday said a member of the NBS, the deputy Pavel Medvedev. Instigator idea of checking the effectiveness of the Central Bank is the Chamber. Office, Sergei Stepashin, is eager to do so since 2006. The last time the need for such a test was discussed in July, but again rejected the initiative of the NBS Chamber, asking precisely articulate their needs. "The question is postponed to the point. Chamber recommended in conjunction with members of the working group at the NBS to formulate questions that they do not hang in the air, the term" performance management "- then explaining to Pavel Medvedev. According to the deputy at that meeting, representatives of the Chamber once again failed to explain specifically what they would like to check. However, in 2006 it was known that a special interest in checking the activities of the Central Bank is to deploy foreign reserves and, in particular, the effectiveness of these investments. After the assassination of the Central Bank first deputy chairman Andrei Kozlov, Sergei Stepashin, even sent a letter to the President, Government and the State Duma, where there is need to verify the financial and economic activities of the Central Bank in order to strengthen public financial control and to ensure greater transparency in its activities. But all that has achieved Court of Accounts its persistence - the possibility to check the financial and economic activities of the Bank of Russia for 2004-2006 with regard to formation and use of funds generated from income securities, performance estimates for its content, as well as its structural units and institutions. In turn, since 2007 the central bank publishes its review of the management of reserve currency assets, which shows, in which assets it invests their savings. As for the assessment of profitability of these investments (and hence the effectiveness of the Central Bank as manager), the central bank believes that clear criteria in this matter can not be. According to representatives of the Central Bank, even at the time of the creation of the gold reserves of the issue was debatable. Material published in the Gazette "№ 163 from 29.08.2008g. RE: Money Author: Klark Date: 09.10.2008 13:35:44 International reserves declined by $ 16.7 billion International (foreign exchange) reserves of Russia for the period from September 26 to October 3, 2008 decreased to $ 562.8 billion to $ 546.1 billion, official data indicates the Department of External and Public Relations of the Central Bank of Russia. RE: Money Author: Klark Date: 10.10.2008 8:09:43 International reserves (GCR) for the period from September 26 to October 3, 2008 decreased to $ 562.8 billion to $ 546.1 billion, published on Thursday show the data of the Central Bank.
Thus, only a week losses totaled $ 16.7 billion in general reserves fell in September to $ 25.6 billion, and August 8, when their size reached a maximum level of $ 597.5 billion, the reserves declined by $ 51.4 general billion Experts, these data are not surprising. The central bank gives a dollar estimate of gold reserves. At the same time in their composition are mostly government bonds, denominated in dollars and euros, and to a lesser extent gold itself. Thus, a change of this estimate depends on both the market prices of bonds and gold, and from the dollar / euro rate. Given that the reserves in euro within the gold reserves contained 40-50%, while reducing their dollar estimates for the week to October 3 at $ 16.7 billion largely due to the increase of the dollar against the euro, says head of financial markets, investment analysis Company CTrust Securities Vladimir Kuzmitsky. During that week, the increase was about 5%. This reassessment led to the decrease in the dollar estimates of gold reserves not less than $ 10 billion The second reason - the outflow of capital. Up until July, Russia's reserves have grown primarily due to currency proceeds into the country from companies exporting raw materials. "However, in August-September with the collapse of the market shares of many non-residents have begun to withdraw their money from the country, resulting in Central Bank had to deal with instead of buying dollars selling them, so that the ruble fell heavily, - Said analyst Michael Zavaraev Arbat Capital. Reduction of reserves will continue. "Since the beginning of this week the central bank had to sell, according to dealers of commercial banks, not less than $ 15 billion to keep the ruble stable at - 30.40 rub. Against a basket of currencies of $ 0.55 and 0,45 EUR », - says Kuzmitsky. Further rate reduction of international reserves may even accelerate. On Friday the State Duma will consider the bill, under which Vnesheconombank able to lend to domestic and foreign companies experiencing difficulties in paying foreign debts. $ 50 billion that is expected to spend for these purposes will be taken from the GCR. The central bank also will acquire the right of unsecured lending to banks. In addition, President Dmitry Medvedev has recently approved the issuance of subordinated loans to state banks. Including the central bank - the main shareholder of Sberbank - give him a direct and 500 billion rubles of foreign reserves. Reserves and accumulated just to use them in tough times, experts say, agreeing with the policy of the Central Bank. Now the size of reserves "can painlessly for their size and quality to support the market for a long period of time," says the head of the department of international relations and inter-bank business of Russian Development Bank Yuri Ambrose. But if the same pace as the week until October 3 ($ 5 billion a day), spending reserves, they can all spend the 110 trading days, estimates Kuzmitsky. "We hope that the regulator is a critical limit of allowable reduction of reserves may be counting on a certain period of time, after which it is necessary to take certain decisions, can be traced back to changes in exchange control" - he says.
However, under attack themselves and the banks who comply with the law. They are unlikely to be beneficial to join with other banks, since the merger of the Russian legislation is still very complicated. To get re NCO they also did not want due to the loss of the retail market.
------------------------------------------ And what about self control? RE: Money Author: Klark Date: 25.08.2008 22:11:49 Russia's reserves are in the center of financial storm U.S. mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, through which the lion's share of all mortgage loans in the U.S. will cease to exist in its previous form. What will happen to Russian money from the Stabilization Fund, which the Russian Finance Ministry has placed in their debt securities? The two largest mortgage agencies, the U.S., as independent companies came to an end, said recently multibillionaire Warren Buffett (Warren Buffett). "Game over, - the richest man in the world by Forbes magazine and head of Berkshire Hathaway. - They were allowed to borrow without any restrictions. They have carte blanche (on loan) from the federal government. " Recall, these agencies were at the epicenter of the global financial crisis that began with a wave of defaults on the mortgage market in the U.S.. Fannie and Freddie are private companies that purchase the large pools of mortgage loans and transform them into its own securities. Due to the weak (sometimes - obviously), credit risk, these loan portfolios turned out to be a huge number of borrowers at risk. With whom, then, actually, and began payments crisis. In the course of trading on Thursday last week the share price of Fannie and Freddie dropped to its lowest level in 20 years on fears that the government will have to resort to rescue the two companies, which account for more than half the U.S. mortgage market volume of $ 12 trillion. Buffett believes that the U.S. economy will weaken against the backdrop of the continuing recession that will last at five years, the U.S. economy are waiting for change for the better, but five months later, the situation can only deteriorate. The investor also noted that the impact of the credit and mortgage crisis continuing to negatively affect the economy in general and financial sector companies in particular. It is worth noting that a similar viewpoint is shared by Harvard University professor and former economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kenneth Rogoff. According to him, the global financial crisis is far from complete, and the American economy is experiencing serious problems. "The U.S. is still very far from full recovery. There is every reason to believe that the financial crisis only reached the middle. Moreover, it is likely that the worst is yet to come "- he said. Meanwhile, last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson won from Congress authorization to provide capital mortgage companies (in the form of loans or buy stock) if necessary. However, so far, according to multiple statements, the U.S. Treasury does not plan to use this option, preferring to keep it in case of sudden deterioration in the market. At the same time K. Rogoff cautioned that "in the coming months we can see not only the collapse of the average American banks, but also the failure of one of the largest U.S. investment bank - says ex-IMF economist. - It is possible that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, despite assurances the Minister of Finance Henry Paulson, will cease to exist in its current form. " Sam Warren Buffett (Warren Buffett) has declared on air of CNBC, that long before the crisis got rid of the papers of one of the mortgage agencies - Freddie Mac. In 2000-2001, owned by Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. owned a controlling stake Freddie: «Everything they do - it is pleasing to Wall Street quarterly reports" - said Buffett. In his view, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will not be able to overcome the crisis without the infusion of investors, but he expressed doubt that these resources can come from private companies. Shares of the two largest U.S. mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have lost since the beginning of the year about 90% of its value. According to the New York Times, the government should inject at least $ 20 billion in each of these companies in order to keep them afloat.
What bude with Russian money invested in American mortgage?
We recall that a month ago of the Russian government, in particular the Minister Alexei Kudrin for "sponsoring" American mortgage harshly criticized by experts Bigness.ru. Russia risked their savings, says the director of the analytical laboratory "Vedi" Alex Vedev: "Experience shows that not much we can be confident in the profitability of such infusions. Investing oil money in deposits, treasury bonds, other bonds, we actually stand just investors who somehow keep track of the markets. If I remember correctly, now yield the same U.S. government bonds - 4.3% per annum in dollar terms. Rubel return due to jumps dollar have a negative "- cites the expert. With it fully agrees with him Academician Sergei eyes: "Russia has already lost enough to continue to invest in a volatile U.S. economy. Until now, the whereabouts of the money invested in American mortgage-backed bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ». According to him, what happened now with the collapse of American mortgage system, everything is "on the conscience of Alexei Kudrin, who during this past year, and about twenty times said that you can not keep the currency reserves and stabilization fund in the U.S. debt. However, he continued his policy of investments in the rapidly falling U.S. securities, blindly following the recommendations of the U.S. Treasury. " According to him in American mortgage securities today halted the order of hundreds of billions of dollars. Return the money Russia will at best in five years. However, several other analysts prefer to do not dramatize the situation. According to another interlocutor of our portal, analyst bank "TRUST" Yevgeny Nadorshin, the intervention of the U.S. federal regulators to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the background of the new shares collapse of two mortgage giants should save the Russian money. To soothe the Russians, Russian Finance Ministry last month also issued an official statement saying that the debt obligations of mortgage companies (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Federal Home Loan Banks) can be calm. These bonds, whose volume as at 1 January 2008 amounted to 100.8 billion dollars (about 20% of all Russian treasury), still have the highest credit rating, trailing only the reliability of U.S. Treasury securities. Ministry of Finance has assured that "in accordance with the current procedures the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund in the securities of these agencies are not placed. Debt obligations of the State accountable to the U.S. mortgage agencies in a limited amount used by the Bank of Russia to the placement of international reserves. Unlike stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, quotes of their debt remains stable "- stated in a press release the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. Thus, in its credit quality of debt obligations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac did not actually concede to the U.S. sovereign debt obligations and still have the highest credit rating that meets the requirements necessary to accommodate the foreign reserves - Kudrin assured the Office. Analyst bank "TRUST" confident that with high probability the restructuring of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guarantee that with Russia on all debt payments will be made: "I believe that for our investment experience totally worth it. If they will do so through the purchase of preferred shares of companies like this were going to do, then debt will remain with debt and do not worry, it will not happen ", 2 - he shares with our readers.
The expert points out that "Russia holds these securities until maturity, that is, we get exactly as much as expected, did not lose a penny. A few months ago, in late June, representatives of the Central Bank said that 50% of the securities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac already repaid. Another six months and there will be about 10% of our money "- concludes E. Nadorshin.
Natalia Trefilova Source: bigness.ru RE: Money Author: Klark Date: 30.08.2008 13:59:16 CB will check on the quality of The Chamber insists on the study of the effectiveness of foreign exchange reserves management In September, at the next meeting of the National Banking Board (NBB) will return to the issue of verifying the effectiveness of the Central Bank in its management of foreign exchange reserves of Russia. On Thursday said a member of the NBS, the deputy Pavel Medvedev. Instigator idea of checking the effectiveness of the Central Bank is the Chamber. Office, Sergei Stepashin, is eager to do so since 2006. The last time the need for such a test was discussed in July, but again rejected the initiative of the NBS Chamber, asking precisely articulate their needs. "The question is postponed to the point. Chamber recommended in conjunction with members of the working group at the NBS to formulate questions that they do not hang in the air, the term" performance management "- then explaining to Pavel Medvedev. According to the deputy at that meeting, representatives of the Chamber once again failed to explain specifically what they would like to check. However, in 2006 it was known that a special interest in checking the activities of the Central Bank is to deploy foreign reserves and, in particular, the effectiveness of these investments. After the assassination of the Central Bank first deputy chairman Andrei Kozlov, Sergei Stepashin, even sent a letter to the President, Government and the State Duma, where there is need to verify the financial and economic activities of the Central Bank in order to strengthen public financial control and to ensure greater transparency in its activities. But all that has achieved Court of Accounts its persistence - the possibility to check the financial and economic activities of the Bank of Russia for 2004-2006 with regard to formation and use of funds generated from income securities, performance estimates for its content, as well as its structural units and institutions. In turn, since 2007 the central bank publishes its review of the management of reserve currency assets, which shows, in which assets it invests their savings. As for the assessment of profitability of these investments (and hence the effectiveness of the Central Bank as manager), the central bank believes that clear criteria in this matter can not be. According to representatives of the Central Bank, even at the time of the creation of the gold reserves of the issue was debatable. Material published in the Gazette "№ 163 from 29.08.2008g. RE: Money Author: Klark Date: 09.10.2008 13:35:44 International reserves declined by $ 16.7 billion International (foreign exchange) reserves of Russia for the period from September 26 to October 3, 2008 decreased to $ 562.8 billion to $ 546.1 billion, official data indicates the Department of External and Public Relations of the Central Bank of Russia. RE: Money Author: Klark Date: 10.10.2008 8:09:43 International reserves (GCR) for the period from September 26 to October 3, 2008 decreased to $ 562.8 billion to $ 546.1 billion, published on Thursday show the data of the Central Bank.
Thus, only a week losses totaled $ 16.7 billion in general reserves fell in September to $ 25.6 billion, and August 8, when their size reached a maximum level of $ 597.5 billion, the reserves declined by $ 51.4 general billion Experts, these data are not surprising. The central bank gives a dollar estimate of gold reserves. At the same time in their composition are mostly government bonds, denominated in dollars and euros, and to a lesser extent gold itself. Thus, a change of this estimate depends on both the market prices of bonds and gold, and from the dollar / euro rate. Given that the reserves in euro within the gold reserves contained 40-50%, while reducing their dollar estimates for the week to October 3 at $ 16.7 billion largely due to the increase of the dollar against the euro, says head of financial markets, investment analysis Company CTrust Securities Vladimir Kuzmitsky. During that week, the increase was about 5%. This reassessment led to the decrease in the dollar estimates of gold reserves not less than $ 10 billion The second reason - the outflow of capital. Up until July, Russia's reserves have grown primarily due to currency proceeds into the country from companies exporting raw materials. "However, in August-September with the collapse of the market shares of many non-residents have begun to withdraw their money from the country, resulting in Central Bank had to deal with instead of buying dollars selling them, so that the ruble fell heavily, - Said analyst Michael Zavaraev Arbat Capital. Reduction of reserves will continue. "Since the beginning of this week the central bank had to sell, according to dealers of commercial banks, not less than $ 15 billion to keep the ruble stable at - 30.40 rub. Against a basket of currencies of $ 0.55 and 0,45 EUR », - says Kuzmitsky. Further rate reduction of international reserves may even accelerate. On Friday the State Duma will consider the bill, under which Vnesheconombank able to lend to domestic and foreign companies experiencing difficulties in paying foreign debts. $ 50 billion that is expected to spend for these purposes will be taken from the GCR. The central bank also will acquire the right of unsecured lending to banks. In addition, President Dmitry Medvedev has recently approved the issuance of subordinated loans to state banks. Including the central bank - the main shareholder of Sberbank - give him a direct and 500 billion rubles of foreign reserves. Reserves and accumulated just to use them in tough times, experts say, agreeing with the policy of the Central Bank. Now the size of reserves "can painlessly for their size and quality to support the market for a long period of time," says the head of the department of international relations and inter-bank business of Russian Development Bank Yuri Ambrose. But if the same pace as the week until October 3 ($ 5 billion a day), spending reserves, they can all spend the 110 trading days, estimates Kuzmitsky. "We hope that the regulator is a critical limit of allowable reduction of reserves may be counting on a certain period of time, after which it is necessary to take certain decisions, can be traced back to changes in exchange control" - he says.
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