Forewarned is forearmed

 Topical Archive Recently, the Communist Party leadership is trying to achieve all of the authorities permit it to ask people what they want and, in its efforts even reached the Supreme Court, and the government in every way prevents it, apparently out of reluctance to see what the people want. Indeed, what if people say that he loves power, and then it will have the power unpleasant mental suffering, and maybe even remorse. This can not be allowed because it would disturb them to solve our common problems. They may take offense and to stop work for the country. But leave them their game and try to explain to people, and incidentally, the leadership of the Communist Party, what happens, as many residents, such as Sverdlovsk region, still did not understand where is the oil needle which, according to Kudrin, we sit , where is the oil motor, which, by definition, German Gref, still works for us and for us. Because of oil does not extract all earn their living by themselves, someone gets the income from their businesses, and someone living on the salary and all pay taxes, in addition, more than fifty percent of taxes goes to the center, the maintenance same Kudrin and Gref, and their ilk. And the amount that must be said, not small. Maybe, just Gref we mistakenly identified with him? But he keeps silent about it. And along the way would not hurt to find out why we so need a weak ruble, which has repeatedly said members of the government and central bank, why the government provides, plans a three-year economic forecast, the growth of tariffs for gas and electricity, why should we pay 100% for utilities, and how much does it - 100%, why do we need the convertibility of the ruble, why people are poor, and the government does not know what to do with the money, why inflation continues to rise, and benefits and other payments are not indexed, why the oligarchs, and so enriched on export of raw materials, VAT returns why the Pension Fund emerged a huge deficit when we're paying such a high single social tax? In general, most people have a lot of questions to the government and MPs that they should have to answer these questions, rather than trying to ask people. But it seems that the deputies did not know what to say, but officials do not want to explain it, continuing to issue a false statement that all of oligarchic capital and surplus of the state - is a gift of nature. According to their version of the oligarchs themselves have found oil, extracted it to build the pipeline, and removed, and even shared with the state, for which we owe them to honor and respect. True, some have found the ore, have built factories, smelted nonferrous and ferrous metals, built the railroad, and also sold it on the international market. Individual oligarchs seem most industrious, even managed for a short time to grow a forest and selling it to earn his billions. Right fabulous heroes! I will not bore the reader by repeating these myths naive, especially since on the subject, from which emerged the oligarchic capital and surplus State why the government wants to have a weak ruble and that they are pursuing, setting the tariff increases for gas and electricity, I have already written. Let us once again on the ruble convertible, and tariffs for gas and electricity, and utility payments. And, above all, explain what a ruble? Ruble - a universal equivalent of value, which measures the value of goods produced in the country, and the power of the ruble on the availability of these products. And, accordingly, the greater diversity of goods produced, the higher purchasing power, higher productivity, and this is ensured, primarily the level of development of means of production-cost loans, the developed infrastructure of storage, marketing, sales and transportation, the availability of sufficient skilled manpower and managerial staff, as well as the presence and active business layer. Now ask yourself what has the government done in this sphere? For it, claiming that by 2007, the ruble would be convertible, it should worry about the development of production, the competitiveness of our economy. Only instead of the ruble, we see - his impairment. Instead, domestic support, we see a foreign lobbying. Instead, measures to contain growth in energy tariffs - forecasts for their growth, which is certainly not the best way to affect industrial production and living standards. And as a result of witnessing the decline in production. Center for Economic Analysis at the Russian government issued the index of industrial production for five months of 2005. And here is the comment, told the newspaper Trud, this phenomenon is the first deputy head of the Centre of economic conditions at the Russian government, Eduard Baranov: "The May decline occurred in 11 out of 15 industries (to use the former classifier sectors of the economy), or 15 out of 20 - the new classifier. The current situation, in our opinion is due to several important factors. First, excessive real appreciation of the ruble against foreign currencies. This was particularly noticeable in the beginning of the year. In such circumstances desheveyuschy import all the energetic displaces and with internal and external markets, rising in price products of Russian enterprises. Second, inflation rates remained high due to the rapid growth of producer prices of industrial products ... "" Trud "on 22 June 2005. Mr Baranov, before you make comments did not stop to think, and do not confuse inflation and ruble appreciation. What kind of rubber ruble, which is both stronger and devalued, resulting in inflation, and how, just like that, can grow up prices for manufactured goods, but still fast? This is not grass, which grows by itself. Prices if and grow the goods, the result of growth of tariffs for energy, which causes an increase in the costs of the manufacturer. But, the price of fares, without the consent of government officials, can not be increased. So it is not among the producers to look for scapegoats, and in the government. If prices are rising as a result of monopoly in the market, the individual producer, or as a result of collusion of individual producers, it's business competition structures, which must follow this. But the same can not be a conspiracy of all the industrial manufacturers. I think that this is Mr. Baranov not prove necessary. From all the above we can conclude that the government does nothing to ensure the stability of economic development and the hardness of the ruble. Healers of our economy, who call themselves supporters of liberalism, in order to free the patient from the cough and runny nose, proposed to use an emetic, and potassium cyanide. It seems that they understand liberalism as the release of government from obligations to the people. We want to raise fares, we want to increase taxes, we want inflation untwist who want to VAT refund, and no we are not op. So why, asks the government in such a hurry to make the ruble convertible, he lacked a solid foundation? After all, for anybody not a secret. that 90% of countries do not have a freely convertible currency, and many are successfully developing their economies. And if it errs in its quest for convertibility of the ruble, or conducts a deliberate policy? Try to answer the question on the question: who the readers might say - err that Mavrodi, the organizer of the MMM, and other builders of bubbles that they can not pay the promised thousandths of interest on borrowed money, or were deliberately deceived the people? Therefore, here I am not trying to convince members of the government, and I want to warn people that the introduction of convertibility of the ruble, with the current weak economy and volatile currency unit, the ratio of the ruble against other currencies is not supported by the exchange of commodities, and artificial, that is, the CBR and Ministry of Finance, the accumulated reserves and the Stabilization Fund, accumulated, I should say thanks to cheap wage labor. This will lead to the fact that these reserves and the Stabilization Fund perekochuyut to foreign banks in the country with a stronger currency and more stable economies. And then we hear the phrase, which has already become sacramental, from the lips of some officials, that would be better, but it turned out, as always. And the government, in a hurry, will borrow from foreign banks to invest this money in the domestic economy. After all, we both need foreign investment, not theirs. Now for 100% of utilities. Naturally, in connection with the ongoing inflation and growth rates, the question arises: how much is 100%? Today is 1500 rubles, and tomorrow it will be 2000rubley, and next year all of 4000 rubles. How much does it bude be from our wages 90% or 100%? Why would the State had to translate all utility bills directly to consumers? After all, budget is also public property and not your own pocket official. Officials did not earn the same budget, laboring during their holidays in foreign countries, and transferring earnings to the budget of our country. It is therefore quite legitimate demand of citizens that the State did not attempt to throw all the problems on them and pay some utility costs, though costs low-income families, from the budget. But the government is not interested, because in this situation, when a part of utility bills is covered by the budget, the state, raising tariffs on gas and electricity, automatically increases and expenditure budgets. And they'd like to completely dispose of the budgetary funds at its discretion and to raise the tariff on as much as your heart desires. The problem of the Pension Fund, which at the moment the budget deficit reached 115 billion rubles, have for two reasons. Firstly, it is because of the desire of the state to have lower wages, to make huge profits from the sale of raw materials on world markets, which entails a slight charge for the UST (unified social tax) and not because of wages in envelopes as we try to convince officials of the RPF, apparently coming from his own experience. Excess profits of the state and the oligarchs is not a gift of nature, and the sweat of employees. And in what a large industrial company, we ask, Mr. Zurab, the alchemist, and his underlings have seen that the workers were given a salary of envelopes? They do not tell us. And do not say, because among the workers it is not there. If the management of enterprises and gets a salary of convertible, it is neither as not applicable to the payroll. So that all calls to the tax authorities look at the enterprises of hidden wages and fining offenders, no more than a desire to officials of the Pension Fund to shift responsibility for the failure of pension reform, on the other. Secondly, this lack of transparency and effectiveness of the Pension Fund, where everything occurs as in the alchemical laboratory. That is why there are such curious cases, as with Mr. Zurabov. Speaking before members of the Committee on Local Government State Duma, he said that any thoughts on increasing pensions twice to leave for better times, and at a meeting in the Kremlin, said that the opportunity was found for the indexation of pensions from August 1. That is, in the morning, he said that money to increase pensions is not in the evening, it turns out, is already there. No wonder, in that the Minister and his colleagues are seeking ways to solve the problem of the Pension Fund does not in itself, not in their work, not in the way of the state to pay employees, and in the "gray" salaries, to increase the "pension" charges, but an increase in retirement age. They are in the public service and it is not permissible to seek the causes of the current situation in the country, because the head is always right, but in his eye and a log is not visible. Therefore, in order not to return to a social security, which, according to an FIU counselor chairman Vladimir Vyunitskogo we returned, it is necessary to reform the state itself and the Pension Fund. Need a significant increase in payment of wage labor and transparency in the activities of the Pension Fund. It is time to eliminate the black holes in the structure of government, until we all turned into one continuous black hole. Vitaly Glukhov 21.10.2005, the -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ Back to the deficit
 The Russian budget in 2009 will be scarce. With this forecast, repeatedly voiced by the experts, 24 December and agreed to the Russian authorities on behalf of the Assistant President Arkady Dvorkovich. Specific figures, he did not name, but Russian media published information related to the Ministry of Finance, are expected deficit at 5 percent of GDP, or about 2 trillion rubles.
 In reality, it can be even higher. During 11 months of surplus amounted to 2.48 trillion rubles. Nevertheless, in November for the first time this year the balance began to decline, and, according to the Ministry of Finance, the deficit reached 270 billion rubles. While still at the beginning of last month, Arkady Dvorkovich said that the Russian budget deficit in the coming months is not threatened. It's unclear, however, whether he had in mind the results of one month or a year. It is interesting that the revision of the budget for next year no one spoke. The need to reduce costs in 2010, emphasized by Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who announced that the budget should be cut to 600-700 billion rubles. However, about 2009 officials expressed confidence that the curtailment of budget expenditures will not. Instead it will be a deficit. What is the level of shortfall is expected by the Government, it is not clear. According to Vedomosti, referring to the working documents of the Ministry of Finance, the difference between revenues and expenditures can be from 3 to 6 percent of GDP (1,5-2,2 trillion rubles). Although this figure seems very large, it is likely to be less surplus in the current year.
 Reduction of budget revenues will occur due to a rapid fall amount of taxes collected. In a crisis, companies are cutting production and lost earnings, so that the tax base is also reduced. In addition, significantly drop the income derived from export duties by a sharp reduction in price of major exports - natural resources. Say, the price of oil compared to 2007 levels, according to most estimates, will fall by half, as compared to 2008 - three times. Almost four times compared to the peak values were reduced and export duties. As a result, the same Ministry of Economic Development forecasts that the budget revenues in 2009 decreased by 32 percent (3.5 trillion rubles).
 This preliminary forecast is based on the fact that the country's GDP in the next year still will grow by 2.4 percent. However, this prediction is based on the fact that oil prices will not fall below 50 dollars per barrel. In the meantime, the world market is bucking the trend - Oil prices fell to $ 40 a barrel and forecasts of experts on the situation looks gloomier one another. If the forecast comes true after all, means the government to cover the shortfall are available. Reserve fund of the country on December 1 totaled 3.661 trillion rubles. That's enough to stop a hole in the budget year and a half years. However, all this will work, provided economic stabilization. But who can guarantee that in 2010 revenue coffers again reduced, already relatively low in 2009? Interestingly, the Dvorkovich not deny the possibility of borrowing to replenish the budget. He clarified that in the first place to cover the difference will be used from the contingency fund, but added that the funds can attract and externally. Assistant to the President stressed that we are not talking about the IMF loan. Most likely, the officer had in mind the placement of government bonds in foreign markets.
 However, there is a "but." Attract external funds are extremely difficult because investors are afraid of the crisis in emerging markets. The attractiveness of certain government bonds can be estimated at a cost of insurance for them (CDS). Price of CDS on Russia is very high, due to the high level of corporate debt, for which, according to investors who can take a responsible State. Therefore, to place the bonds will actually be only under very high interest rates. Thus, the first budget deficit in the last 10 years, may suddenly cause major problems for Russia, while many states for many years lived with expenditures exceeding revenues. True predictions of those who believed that a serious crisis, the government will have difficulty in meeting scheduled commitments. The point here is not a conservative fiscal policy, the benefits of recent years which praised the country's leaders, and general weakness of the economy, which is its dependence on resource prices can quickly eliminate the benefits gained from the exchange "Zhirkov - no matter how thick his coat did not appear.
 Dmitry Migunov 25.12.2008