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среда, 26 июля 2017 г.

Black Holes of the Russian Budget

The budget of Russia was redrawn due to a 'shortage' of 3 trillion rubles
'Due to what we will finance the deficit in a year and a half?'
The State Duma adopted in the first reading the amendments to the budget of 2016. Deputies clarified the parameters of the main financial document in the crisis: the budget deficit will grow by 670 billion rubles and amount to 3 trillion rubles, which is 3.7% of GDP. Revenues will decrease by 370 billion rubles and amount to 13.3 trillion rubles and expenses will increase by 300 billion rubles (up to 16.4 trillion rubles). Cover the deficit, as usual, planned from the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, in which, according to experts, money is enough for another 2 years. The Ministry of Finance is focused on inflation and does not lose hope of curbing it. According to the head of this department Anton Siluanov, by the end of the year, inflation will be 5.8%. Previously, the Ministry of Finance forecast inflation of 6.4%.

According to Siluanov, speaking before the deputies, his department was forced to reconsider the budget unstable situation in the economy. Among such reasons are Western sanctions and cheaper oil. Therefore, when making amendments, the Ministry of Finance relied primarily on the value of black gold. 'The price of oil, which significantly affects the revenue side of the budget, we estimate at $ 41 per barrel. This roughly corresponds to today's price parameters, 'Anton Siluanov noted.
As explained later, the chairman of the budget and taxes committee Andrei Makarov, it is because of the fall in oil prices that the Russian budget will not reach 3 trillion rubles. 'What happened?' When the budget was accepted, the oil price was set at $ 50, today it is proposed to adjust to $ 41, 'Makarov said from the rostrum.
In his words, a decrease in the price of hydrocarbons by $ 1 means a loss of 140 billion rubles for the budget.
The 'patch' hole in the treasury will be at the expense of stocks. Recall that in August, after a two-month break, the Finance Ministry has already resumed spending of funds from the Reserve Fund to finance the budget deficit - 390 billion rubles. As a result, it now has about 2.1 trillion.
But by the end of 2016, according to Siluanov, 1.1 trillion rubles will remain in it. However, there is also the National Welfare Fund with 4.7 trillion, where the government plans to launch a hand after the Reserve Fund is exhausted. However, in FNB, only 3.1 trillion rubles are available from 4.7 trillion rubles. The remaining '1.6 trillion rubles are invested in assets, invested in projects that work for our economy.'
Therefore, independent experts are not accidentally worried about what the government intends to do when all stocks are exhausted. 'The question arises: when in a year or a year and a half there will not be these sources, then at what expense will we finance the budget deficit?
As we recall, two years ago we were promised that in 2015 the economic growth will be 1.2%. However, in fact, GDP fell by 3.7%.
Last year, when the budget was adopted, it was also planned that growth would reach 0.7%. But already now the government reports that they expect the economy to fall by 0.6%.
In 2017, all the same promise growth. But where are the guarantees that there will be no minus? 'The fact is that the crisis did not end. It is structural. It develops along such an amplitude - at first a sharp decline, then its deceleration, and then again a failure, 'explains Igor Nikolaev, professor at the Higher School of Economics.
According to the expert, after a sharp decline, adaptation takes place, which we are now witnessing. There are also external factors that have softened somewhat. For example, the price of oil. They rose a little. But structural reforms can not be carried out in a few months. That is, we are waiting for the acceleration of the recession, especially as there are fewer and fewer reserves.
As for inflation, with which the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are actively fighting, according to Rosstat, it has been growing 0.1% for five consecutive weeks. 'If such rates continue in October-December, then Siluanovs named 5.8% look quite realistic,' believes Alain Afanasyeva, senior analyst at FOREX CLUB.

Irina Badmaeva


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