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среда, 26 июля 2017 г.

Rosstat as the main industrial producer!

Analysts Sberbank CIB (investment division of 'Sberbank') pointed to the discrepancy of the latest Rosstat data on industrial production rules of arithmetic, reports Republic.

On December 15, Rosstat published a report, from which it followed that in November the Russian industry grew by 2.7% in annual terms - as quickly as possible over the past two years, and in the first 11 months of 2016 - by 0.8% Indicator 2.7 % More than four times higher than the consensus forecast of analysts previously interviewed by Interfax, and 27 times the forecast of experts interviewed by Reuters.

The data published by Rosstat does not correlate with its figures for the previous months, according to which the growth in industrial production was observed in August (by 0.7%), in June (by 1.7%), in May (by 0.7%), in April (By 0.5%). The fall was registered in October (by 0.2%), in September (by 0.8%), in July (by 0.3%), in March (by 0.5%), in January (by 2.7%) %).

'The simple arithmetic effect of multiplying the monthly indicators gives a completely different result: with such calculations it turns out that in January-November 2016 industrial production increased by only 0.3% compared to the same period last year,' said the senior economist Sberbank CIB Anton Struchenevsky.

In the Federal Service of State Statistics, they remain in their opinion about the rate of growth of Russian industry.

They told Interfax that they calculated the index of industrial production in November and for 11 months of the year using a new formula, so that the growth for January-November was higher than the monthly dynamics showed for 11 months.

The ministry said in this connection that the data for the previous months 'are already irrelevant' and will be revised - one must understand, upward. 'With this in mind, the analysis of monthly statistics appears to be meaningless, and we should be guided by new data,' the Sberbank CIB report concludes.

'Not having reliable monthly statistics, we are at a loss to say whether there was a growth or decline in October relative to October, but the only thing we are going to state is that in November the dynamics of industrial production was better than the average for 10 months, and we We believe that the growth of industrial production for the whole year will be about 1%, 'the analysts stressed.

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