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пятница, 28 июля 2017 г.

Robbery plan

Central Bank threatens to raise the dollar to 70 roubles
Russia began a planned devaluation of the national currency
Since February, the Bank of Russia with the filing of the Ministry of Finance begins massive buying currency on the domestic market. The purpose of these interventions, as follows from minfinovskih leaks is to drop the ruble by 10%, to mend holes in the Federal budget. While the panic on the stock exchanges and the exchange there. But the fact remains that the planned devaluation is announced. It is therefore possible that exchange boom — the nearest time, because of the actions of the Central Bank could throw a dollar from the current 60 to 70 rubles.

 The news that the Finance Ministry intends to substitute the native ruble bandwagon and cut its current value is one-tenth, excited as a financial market and the minds of the population. How so? Only achieved a stable rate of national currency — and turn back the clock. And the dollar fallen to 60 rubles, according to the plan of the Ministry of Finance must again rise to 65-66. Maybe it's time to run to exchange offices?
Stir until near the exchangers is not observed. Ordinary Russians are in no hurry to storm the banks and shift the savings from the ruble of the capsule in the currency. "MK" asked the tellers a few credit organizations of Moscow and Moscow region (public and commercial): not increased if they have clients who get rid of Russian banknotes? Bank employees said that nothing unusual has noticed: February 1, in the first half of the day, to change the currency came only a few people — not more than in other days, and in small amounts. As for not posting on a Board of these banks courses, they are also not impressed. Buying and selling of the dollar were within the range of 60.7/62.8 ruble, Euro — to 64.5/67 rubles.
TSB also do not make confusion: the official rate of the dollar the next day up 28 cents, "European" — for 75 cents, which in principle is not beyond the scope of normal volatility.
The atmosphere on the foreign exchange sites were also fairly quiet. According to the Deputy head of the analytical Department of "Alpari" Natalia Milchakova, judging by dynamics of trades, the Central Bank on the first day of February to the stock exchange to emerge did not.
But experts believe that one should not jump to conclusions. The Ministry of Finance, which is responsible for the execution of the budget, the ruble at the rate of 60 per dollar seems too strong. The Treasury deficit this year is expected at 2.8 trillion rubles. As more than half of the budget income is foreign currency earnings, based on the logic of the officials, the strengthening of the Russian currency just one ruble "washes away" from the Treasury billions.
Therefore, the Central Bank definitely will buy foreign currency, although, of course, try to do it as carefully as possible. "The Central Bank waiting for a favorable exchange rate. Most likely, he will enter the market when the dollar falls below 60 rubles. The volume of currency purchases will range from $1-3 billion per month. In this regard, should prepare for more impressive jumps of the dollar and the Euro than it is now. Purchase of currency in such volumes will allow the dollar to rise to 70 rubles, which is even above the standards sought by the Ministry of Finance", — said Milchakova.
There is another factor of influence on the ruble — by private investors. The intervention of the Central Bank will signal to other market participants. The presence of the Bank of Russia on the exchange will push the dollar to rise. Banks and other punters will be closely watching the exchange rate difference and start buying dollars at every opportunity that also have a negative impact on the ruble.
However, there are other scenarios. For example, if Donald trump will keep his promises and will remove or at least weaken the sanctions against our country. This will be positive for the ruble exchange rate is strengthened. A number of American financial institutions predict when this scenario is that the increase in the cost of the Russian national currency on the same "sacred" 10%. In 2016, the Finance Ministry has relied on the dollar to save in that currency (supposedly more reliable) money in the Reserve Fund, and lost — its volume fell by more than three times, from $50 to $16 billion. If history repeated itself, then the attempts of the Ministry of Finance to reduce the budget deficit risk to be in vain.
And what in the current situation, to do ordinary Russians? The reason for panic no ruble or the dollar. Dollars it makes sense to buy long-term — six months or a year. But to do it with a slight hesitation every day is too risky. No one knows exactly when the Central Bank will go public. It is not excluded that the regulator is in the process of the intervention thinks the dollar is too high and decides that it threatens the achievement of the inflation target of 4%, it can start to get rid of the currency. Then private investors who traded hardly accumulated rubles for American money inevitably lose.
"Now our government is difficult to understand. They want the ruble was cheap and inflation low, but to combine it practically impossible", — concluded Milchakova.
Rising prices and a falling ruble. Chronicle of events
Nikolay Makeev
Ina Tegeticula

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