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среда, 26 июля 2017 г.

Who prevents a strong ruble?

German Gref does not need a strong ruble
Sberbank President German Gref believes that high oil prices and a sharp appreciation of the ruble will have a negative impact on the Russian economy. Such an opinion Gref expressed in the air of the TV channel 'Russia 24'.
'If we imagine that oil will again cost $ 120 per barrel and the dollar at 35 rubles, then we understand that this is a return to the same economic disease, which is called' Dutch disease 'in the economy,' Gref said.
By 'Dutch disease' is meant a negative effect, which strengthens the national currency as a result of sharp growth in certain sectors (usually extractive) for the economic development of the country as a whole. Expensive currency reduces the competitiveness of products of manufacturing industries in the market. This, in turn, leads to a reduction in output and exports of products and, as a result, higher unemployment and a drop in GDP.



At the same time, German Gref believes that if oil prices stay at the level of 50-70 dollars, this, on the contrary, will contribute to the development of the Russian economy and 'will greatly help with the development of the production sector'.
True, the head of the Savings Bank doubts that in the near future oil will be able to overcome the $ 70 mark. 'Up to $ 60 is real, but it's not the level of prices that would give us a happy and rich existence again,' he said.
Earlier, Gref had already said that he saw no reason for the return of oil prices to the level of three years ago. In January 2016, the president of Sberbank predicted that the era of hydrocarbons is coming to an end, and the oil age remains at most 10 years. However, it must be said that it was in January that oil quotes renewed the multi-year lows and fell to $ 27 per barrel.
By the end of the year, however, prices began to increase gradually, and then strengthened against the backdrop of the OPEC agreement and the countries outside the cartel, on reducing production of 'black gold'. On December 21, Brent crude oil was trading at $ 55.7 per barrel. For one dollar on the Moscow stock exchange were given 60.98 rubles. By the way, in the long-term macroeconomic forecast of Sberbank, analysts did not rule out that by 2025 oil prices could rise to 138 dollars per barrel, although they referred to American experts.
Leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund, lecturer of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Igor Yushkov believes that it is not entirely true to call high oil revenues the main problem of the Russian economy.
- It seems to me that the statement of Herman Gref can be divided into several components. The first is his subjective dislike for oil and the real economy as a whole. Judging by the statements, he likes robots, 'Tesla' and so on. This is a philosophical question about what the economy should be built on - innovations or production and extractive sectors. Hence the prejudice of the Dutch disease, the raw curse and so on.
Many believe that the oil and gas industry can be the locomotive of the economy, and sanctions have always shown this. For example, when they were introduced against us in the 1960s, we finally started producing large-diameter pipes ourselves, which we had previously bought in Germany and Austria. When we stopped selling rigs, we also began to do them ourselves. The oil and gas industry provided development of other sectors of the economy.
Gref says that if oil is expensive, then we will relax and do nothing. This is some kind of fundamental prejudice about the Russian character. However, in Gref's words there is also an economic component.
'SP': - What is it?
- If the ruble exchange rate is 35 per dollar, Russian export-oriented companies will receive less rubles for exporting one unit of goods. But they produce goods by spending rubles. It turns out that it is not profitable for the entire export-oriented industry to make the national currency stronger. And this happens when the price of oil rises. The higher it is, the less they get added value.
Another point is that high oil prices and a strong ruble are not so necessary for oil companies. Most of the surcharge from high prices for raw materials is removed by the state in the form of export duties and taxes on the extraction of minerals. And companies have almost no difference, they sell oil at $ 60 per barrel or 120. But at the same time, they will feel the ruble for them, as they extract oil for the national currency, and sell for dollars. The cheaper the ruble, the more profitable it is for them.
'JV': - And if we gradually begin to abandon the rate on the extractive industry and we will pass to the innovative model of development?
- It seems to me that Gref's conviction that the oil industry is harmful is erroneous. About 900 thousand people work in the oil and gas industry. They all have families, so you can multiply this number by 2-3. In addition, one can not ignore related industries, for example, the production of pipes. At pipe-rolling plants it works as a min

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