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среда, 26 июля 2017 г.

Life has become worse

Defense from the economy
More than half of Russians negatively assess the changes in the economy over the past year, 30% expect changes for the worse. Nevertheless, the number of pessimists markedly decreased, the Institute for Statistical Studies of the Higher School of Economics (HSE) found out. In September, Russians showed optimism and their purchases: the average check for the first time in a few months has grown. The reasons for the paradox in the adaptation, experts say.

The results of the survey show that pessimism as a whole persists, although it has slightly decreased compared to the second quarter of 2016. In the third quarter, 8% of respondents noted improvement of personal financial situation, deterioration - 40% (against 7 and 41% quarter earlier). Expect improvement of 9%, worsening - 22% of respondents. The number of those who negatively assess changes in the economy for the year has declined noticeably: from 63 to 52% of respondents.

If we talk about the future, the pessimists are still much more optimistic: 29% expect a slowdown in the economy, only 18% are waiting for positive changes. The consumer confidence index, calculated by Rosstat, in the third quarter of 2016 remained in the negative zone, although it grew by 7 pp.

Pessimists are more likely to be right, says Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics.

About the restoration of the standard of living of the population of speech in the near future does not go: real disposable money incomes of the population have been falling for two years, and the intensity of this process is not decreasing, he writes. Therefore, the main reason for improving sentiment is that Russians have adapted to the conditions of the 'new reality'.

'Households, especially with incomes below the average, were forced to switch to an electoral savings or even more defensive model of consumer behavior, balancing their spending with a lower level of income,' the expert believes. They reduced everything, from their point of view, excessive spending, abandoned expensive purchases, and free funds are deposited in personal 'reserve funds' and 'national wealth funds'.

Now each family establishes its own 'budgetary rules', strictly regulating expenses, says Ostapkovic. Including such behavior helps people to perceive a difficult economic situation more calmly. Relatively low inflation and the strengthened ruble rate recently support this calmness, as well as the increased price of oil, which exceeded the psychological mark of 50 rubles. Per barrel.
September opened with shopping

In September, the average Russian spent 528 rubles. For one trip to the store - this amount is 3% less than a year earlier, and almost 5% lower compared to September 2014. But compared to August, this is a noticeable increase: by 6%, or 30 rubles., Says the research holding 'Romir'.
True, in the regional context the situation looks ambiguous: the most tangible contribution to the growth of the average check was made by residents of the central region of Russia led by the Muscovites, who increased their one-time spending by almost 10% compared to August. And Siberians and residents of the Far East, on the contrary, reduced spending. The amount of the check also varies greatly depending on the federal district: from 613 rubles. In the North-West Federal District up to 429 rubles. in the Urals.

From some increase in the appetite of Russians to shopping, they win hypermarkets, where before that the check steadily decreased since the beginning of the year, reminds 'Romir'. In September, in large format stores, the check grew by 11.3%.

However, it can not yet be said that this is a high figure: the checks rather played a deep failure in August. In other types of shops, the check grew slightly more modestly: by 5.4% in discount stores, by 6.7% in supermarkets and by 7% in traditional trade stores.

Both buyers and sellers have already adapted sufficiently in the current market conditions and adjusted their behavior model, agrees Mikhail Fedulov, the financial director of the 'I'm Beloved' network. 'Over the past two months, we have seen real growth in check and traffic, and above the same periods of transition from summer to September of last year,' he says.

For real optimism, the time has not come yet: expenses have not reached even pre-crisis levels, analyst Alor Broker Kirill Yakovenko said. But the positive, he said, is that the growth of the check is not due to higher prices. Inflation in September was only 0.2%, he recalls.

So, apparently, Russians are beginning to believe in the passage of the peak of the crisis and the future recovery, the expert suggests.

'I note that we are talking about expectations, and not about the present state of things, since the pace of recovery in the income of the population is still at a very low level,' Yakovenko adds. He specifies that the real incomes of the population in September rose by 4.8% for the first time since 2013, but it is still a 'drop in the bucket' taking into account the growth of poverty and the fact that the incomes of the majority of the population are comparable to the level of 2009.

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