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воскресенье, 23 июля 2017 г.

From the fall of the ruble, only the state of the oligarchs

Oreshkin: Maintaining a strong ruble could slow the growth of the Russian economy

MOSCOW, April 13 (Itar-Tass) - The Prime-Tass. Maintaining a strong ruble exchange rate may lead to a slowdown in the growth rate of the Russian economy this year, says Maxim Oreshkin, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development.
'One of the risks for economic growth this year is the serious monetary tightening in recent months, in the form of a combination of interest rate growth in real terms and a serious strengthening of the ruble.' Preserving current conditions, according to our estimates, may lead to a slowdown in rates Economic growth in the middle of the year, 'Oreshkin said, presenting at the meeting of the Russian government scenario scenarios for the socio-economic development of the country in the period 2018-2020.
The rate of inflation in this development may amount to less than 3% by the end of the year. 'Already at the moment, inflation has dropped to a level of 4.2%, which is better than any forecasts that were at the beginning of the year,' he said.

However, as emphasized by Oreshkin, such conditions are not basic for the ministry. 'Active growth of imports and seasonal deterioration of the balance of payments already in the summer months will lead to the formation of a current account deficit, which will create prerequisites for weakening the ruble,' Oreshkin said.
Keeping the current levels of the ruble exchange rate will lead to a rapid decrease in inflation, which will signal the Central Bank of Russia to more aggressive mitigation of the DCT, he said.
'In the baseline scenario, we expect a slowdown in inflation this year to 3.8%, while the ruble-dollar exchange rate is weakened to 68 rubles in case of a decline in oil prices to $ 40 per barrel, and the ruble is weakened to 62, while oil prices remain at current Level, 'Oreshkin added.

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Who prevents a strong ruble?

I look at the press about V.Putin's meeting with A.Kudrin and I puzzle: what are they talking about? I just can not understand anything. It seems that many journalists describing the meeting did not understand anything.
'Too strong a ruble, according to the president, is capable of undermining the competitiveness of the national economy,' the Kommersant newspaper writes.
How can a strong ruble undermine the national economy? Strong, I take the expression used by them, can cut the revenues of raw monopolies supplying hydrocarbons to the world market, but it will not undermine, but rather strengthen the positions of producers in other sectors. Americans, recently doing everything to strengthen the dollar, realizing that this is the basis for the stable existence of American manufacturers. And we, it turns out, the opposite is true.
To Putin's indistinct statement, Kudrin answers even more intricately: 'The main measures to prevent the strengthening,' says Alexei Kudrin, 'are government measures, but as soon as the government increases its spending from oil and gas revenues, it threatens to further strengthen. In the framework of the forecast that we have now prepared, we will be able to retain the planned strengthening parameters '.
Kudrin would adhere to a single coordinate system, and not to state absolutely contradictory statements. To deputies and the people, he says that the additional costs will cause inflation, and therefore they need to be limited, and, in this case, from the increase in expenses, at the expense of oil and gas revenues, according to the minister, the ruble will strengthen. How will the fortification take place? After all, the costs will be made in rubles, and not in dollars, and therefore there will be an increase in the ruble weight, in relation to goods, and the same dollar, which, accordingly, will lower the real value of the ruble, and not strengthen it.
Journalists of Vedomosti, Alexander Petrachkov, Alexander Becker, commented on the situation: 'Strengthening the ruble could threaten the economy, especially the real sector, Vladimir Putin believes, so the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank will have to fight inflation and strengthen the course.'
It seems that the officials of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, too zealous to fight inflation, at the request of the president, have stepped on the corn of raw giants, but it hurts so much that Vladimir Putin himself undertook to support inflation.
'The President asks to urgently slow down the pace of strengthening the national currency,' - Vremya Novostey reports; 'Putin instructed to slow down the ruble,' Larisa Kaftan wrote in Komsomolskaya Pravda.
The fact that the strengthening of the ruble, unprofitable for raw monopolies, and the president is concerned about this, Vladimir Putin did not hide. The president said that he met with representatives of large companies, 'they still have a safety margin,' but the rapid strengthening of the ruble could create problems for them. Their goods are becoming more expensive in comparison with imports and are losing world competition. How is the government going to save the situation? '
And in the field of production, what products do we compete with, if 70% of our exports are raw materials?
'We must counter the strengthening of the ruble by all available methods!' - the minister stated with dedication and with joy. And how can he not rejoice! All this time, Kudrin did just that, to please a large

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