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суббота, 22 июля 2017 г.

Take 8.6% to give Americans under 1.5%

An attempt to press or earn? Russia's national debt is bought by foreign speculators

The day before, the Ministry of Finance again placed federal loan bonds (OFZ) for 21.5 billion rubles, increasing public debt. The next auction is scheduled for August 10, the maximum volume of OFZ placement in the third quarter of this year is 240 billion rubles, the ministry said. As the national debt grows, the share of foreign investors that have Russian bonds on hand increases. If a year ago the share of non-residents was 18.6%, then by the end of the first half of 2016 it increased to 24.5%. On the one hand, the interest of non-residents expands opportunities to borrow in the national currency, which is more preferable for the Ministry of Finance, but on the other hand, the inflow of speculative money into the economy is increasing, which creates risks for the country's financial system.

The yield of Russian OFZ remains high against the backdrop of bonds of other countries. At the moment, it is at the level of 8.6%, down from 11% due to high demand.
Investors get a great profit due to the fact that the economy of the country is stormy: the ruble exchange rate is unstable, and the key rate of the Central Bank, on which the cost of borrowing depends, is still high, despite the slowdown of inflation. The quantitative easing program, which operates in Germany, Switzerland, Japan and other countries, on the one hand, gave the market cheap loans, on the other hand it reduced the yield on government bonds to negative values: from -0.2 to -0.6%. According to analysts BKSEkspress order of $ 10 trillion of national debt is traded with negative returns. Against this background, Russian bonds are, although risky (the geopolitical situation remains tense), but a profitable investment.
'Inflation slows down, and the Central Bank's key rate remains high, plus a small bonus is the tendency to strengthen the ruble due to rising oil prices.' In today's global financial world, all these moments are interdependent and so intertwined that to say which factor has more influence is difficult. Suggest that a downward correction in the oil market will slightly cool the demand for OFZ due to the depreciation of the ruble, but while maintaining the appropriate yield and inclination of the world's Central Bank to a soft monetary policy, olzhitelnoe weakening of the ruble and the demand for government bonds is not necessary of course, geopolitical and domestic political risks in the judgment handed down over the bracket. '- says the analyst' BCS Express 'Konstantin Karpov.
All these risks are relevant for the Russian side, but first thing is to pay attention to the objective danger to the financial market, where there is more speculative money. Loans in Russia are often used by international investors in carry-trade transactions, in translation from professional slang - to convert debts of states that have set low rates to the currency of countries whose debt securities are more expensive.
'When we see an increase in appetite for risk in the financial markets, speculative capital in search of higher returns is sent to emerging markets, and in particular to Russia.' Here there is no great merit of Russian issuers, most of the emerging markets' The risk of this state of affairs is the fact that in the event of a worsening of sentiment in the markets, the speculative capital that has come may also quickly leave our market. Non-resident investors in their nature are speculative deals, and not investment in the usual sense.The global investment appeal of the Russian market has not changed much for the better in recent months, and therefore the market remains extremely dependent on market sentiment, '- said on the eve .RU analyst of the TeleTrade Group Mikhail Poddubsky.
The sale of OFZ to foreign holders does not carry such a risk as loans from other states and international organizations like the IMF, says Nikita Isayev, director of the Institute of Current Economy.
'The experience of Greece shows that in this case the country can get seriously dependent on the terms of creditors and start dancing to their tune, sell their best assets, even strategically important for the development of the state.' Such loans are also associated with political risks. With the IMF to provide loans, and for this reason it pursues a policy of reducing social support - the same housing and communal services for the population are becoming much more expensive. 'Such changes can not but affect the attitude of the population to power,' he.

In the case of OFZ, first of all, the conditions dictate, not a separate state, but a market. Due to the 'worsening of the mood' OFZ will be sold by some investors, and in case of a global crisis, which this time may begin with China, all OFZ investors will leave OFZ. Usually this leads to a lack of liquidity in the market, however, the head of the Institute for Globalization Problems, Mikhail Delyagin, notes that Russia does not

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